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PostPosted: Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:52 am 
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I'm surprised Walkers is still as high as he is. Also, Carson - I feel bad, but I have to admit to looking forward to his crash, as I expect Huckabee will get a decent bump.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2015 8:17 am 
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I still see Walker as the favorite for the nomination because he has the broadest appeal to many parts of the GOP. He is famous for fighting the left and winning, then being re-elected in a hostile environment. That's very attractive to a lot of people.

I don't see any way that Cruz wins the nomination. I really like him, but he's best in the Senate. There are just way too many pansies in the party to nominate Ted Cruz. Huckabee is as conservative as Cruz, but his style is much softer and more palatable.

I also don't see any way that Jeb Bush wins the nomination. He's far too liberal and doesn't have a reservoir of strength to draw on like other liberal candidates like McCain or Bush Sr (41) did in the past. Bush Sr rode the coattails of Reagan. McCain just barely won the nomination in 2008 due to splitting of votes from conservatives. A huge factor in 2008 was the massive focus on electability and the country was sick of George W Bush. Republicans desperately looked for any candidate who could win, so they picked a fairly moderate candidate who still lost. Anybody would have lost in 2008.

In 2012, there really weren't any credible candidates running against Romney. Romney was the only 1st tier candidate, and he was deeply flawed, which I tried to warn Romney supporters about in 2008 and again in 2012.

Jeb Bush doesn't have the positives on his side that previous candidates like him have had. He's more like a Rudy Guiliani, good on a few issues but really bad on most issues. I don't take his candidacy seriously. He'll hang around until the real voting starts in 2016, then when the real votes start to come in he'll fade.

I actually expect that Jeb's supporters will abandon him when they see how poor his does in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. They'll hang around wanting him to win Florida, which he won't win because momentum will be behind another candidate. Then, most Bush supporters will probably shift support to who they see as the most electable candidate left in the field, which will be Walker. That's why I expect Walker to win the nomination rather easily unless he does something stupid in the next year to self-sabotage.

Should Walker self-sabotage, then candidates like Huckabee or Rand Paul could possibly win.


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 07, 2015 11:28 pm 
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Eric,

Walker is well positioned and I agree with you on both Cruz and Bush. Fox has a poll out today which shows the Walker surge has faded though. It also shows that even though Huck has largely been out of the mainstream coverage and specualtion, he still is floating up and is on the leader board.

Walker 15
Jeb 12
Carson 11
Huck 10
Cruz 10
Rand 9
Rubio

It's the fav/unfav (GOP voters) that still shows Huckabee as the stealth leader.

Huck (fav/unfav/) 57/18 +39
Jeb 51/33 +18
Rand 52/23 +29
Walker 45/7 +38
Cruz 46/19 +27
Carson 39/7 +32
Rubio 45/12 +31

Walker is well positioned but needs to win over those who don't know him by a pretty large (and unrealistic) margin to catch Huckabee on the fav/unfav. Bush is clearly not in a good place with Cruz and Rand in a danger zone of hitting a ceiling that's too low to compete. (all of this certainly can and will change, but this is the state of the race).

Frankly I have not been impressed with Walker's instincts when thrown into the "no-win" policy trap questions or when forced to address areas of real-time controversy (like the RFRA in AR and IN). He tends to hedge or doublespeak and it is NOT attractive. It also undermines his alleged brand of being the "brave GOP governor who stood up to the union thugs." He had better get better pretty quick cause the litmus tests are coming and they are not all, "do you think unions have too much power."

Last, Jindal continues to really be solid thinking on his feet, yet he has gained almost nothing in voter support for the effort.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:40 am 
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http://www.nationaljournal.com/against- ... o-20150324

I came across this article today that pretty much sums up my thinking on Jeb Bush. I read it after posting here the other day, but it says the same thing. I don't see how Bush wins the nomination. I don't know who will win it, but it's easy to see that it won't be Bush. Interestingly, the article even has a side by side photo with Bush and Guiliani just like I compared Bush to.

I think Cruz is in the race because he wants to speak to certain issues and influence the eventual nominee. He doesn't seriously expect to win. Perhaps he wants to lay the groundwork for a future run in 2020, but I think it's mainly to speak about things that he cares about, and there's nothing wrong with that.

Huckabee truly wants to win it.

I saw that Rand Paul officially jumped in now. He has a shot to win, but I think it's an outside shot. The disastrous foreign policy of Obama is going to hurt Paul, even if he doesn't take the positions of his father. I really like Rand Paul a lot as I have very strong libertarian leanings, although I am first and foremost a social conservative (across the board conservative). But I would really like to see the federal government a lot weaker and the states stronger, with many of these issues decided by the states at a more local level. I think Paul or Huckabee would appeal to a wider electorate than candidates like Romney, Bush, or McCain could. Huckabee does well with the "He cares about me" type of people. Paul does well with "A different type of Republican" people.

Unfortunately, there is a lot of anti-Christian bigotry in this country, and that hurts Huckabee. We aren't there yet, but we are getting to the point where if you are openly a follower of Jesus Christ then it will be impossible to be elected to the Presidency. Sure, you can win smaller offices like Senate or Representative or Governor, but there are sections of the country where being a Christian is a dis-qualifier. Think Pacific Northwest and New England. But I don't think we are there yet.

There is a strong Christian element still in the USA, and that is part of the reason why Romney lost. Turnout for Obama in 2012 was much lower than in 2008. Many, many people switched their votes from Obama 2008 to Romney 2012; however, many people who voted for McCain in 2008 chose not to vote in 2012. Think about why someone would do that. If you didn't like Obama in 2008, why are you not voting in 2012? It had to do with who the Republican candidate was. They didn't like Obama, and they didn't like Romney. It's not that Romney was too liberal. I mean, come on, is he more liberal than McCain who they voted for? No, it's because he was Mormon. I tried to warn those Romney supporters over and over. I am deeply entrenched in the evangelical Christian community, and I study theology a lot. I know them. For them, voting for Romney was a sin. It was endorsing a false religion, just like voting for a pro-choice (pro-abortion) candidate would be a sin and they wouldn't do it. Faced with the choice of two evils, they chose to keep a clean conscience and stay home. People who don't understand Christianity think that Mormonism is just a denomination of Christianity, which it is not, although Mormons call themselves Christians. Although they claim that they believe in Jesus, they do not believe that Jesus is the eternal God. They believe that Jesus was created by his father through Mary, and that if you live a good Mormon life (saved by works, instead of by faith), then you can become a god yourself like Jesus. It's heretical. I separated politics from religion and still voted for Romney in the general (Santorum in the primary for lack of a better option), but for many people it would be sinful to support him and I fully understand that view and would not expect someone to violate their conscience.

What I don't get is how so many people couldn't see this in advance? People are truly blind. It just shows you how far our country has strayed from the Word of God. I like to read stories of how life is in Europe to see indicators of where we are headed. Yesterday I was reading about how a nurse was fired from her job in a hospital for telling her co-worker that she disagreed with same-sex marriage (somewhere in the UK I think). That's coming here. At least the light of Jesus will shine brighter in the darkness. It's really going to separate the true followers of Christ from the phonies.


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 20, 2015 9:28 am 
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New CNN poll, 4/16 - 4/19, Huckabee #5

Bush 17
Walker 12
Paul 11
Rubio 11
Huckabee 9
Cruz 7
Carson 4
Christie 4
Perry 3
Santorum 3
Jindal 2
Kasich 2

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/04/20/cnnorc2016poll04202015.pdf

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 23, 2015 1:39 pm 
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4/16 - 4/21

Rubio leading? - Still waiting for that bumb to happen from Huckabee's "pre-announcement". Carson has faded.

Rubio 15
Bush 13
Walker 11
Cruz 9
Paul 8
Christie 7
Huckabee 7
Carson 3
Perry 3
Santorum 2
Kasich 2

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2221

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:14 am 
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And...another one: Fox, 4/19 - 4/21

Rubio 13
Walker 12
Paul 10
Bush 9
Huckabee 9
Cruz 8
Christie 6
Carson 6
Perry 2
Kasich 2

I wonder how desperately Bush wants to win, and whether he would/will resort to "scorched-earth tactics" like Romney did?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/04/23/fox-news-poll-042315/

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 24, 2015 10:31 am 
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Rubio got his announcement bump. There are 3 scheduled announcements so far during the 1st week of May. Will Carson, Fiorina, and Huckabee all get an announcement bump? Who will lose support if they do? Does anyone know when Jeb and Walker are scheduled to make announcements? Is Christie serious?

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PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 4:56 am 
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I hope Huckabee will be receiving a "bump" as of today!

NBC/WSJ 4/26-4/30

Bush 23
Rubio 18
Walker 14
Paul 11
Cruz 11
Carson 7
Huckabee 5
Christie 5
Perry 2
Fiorina 1

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/SECTION_More_Politics/V215179%20NBC-WSJ%20APRIL%20Poll%20%282%29.pdf

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PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2015 8:26 am 
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Peter wrote:
I hope Huckabee will be receiving a "bump" as of today!

NBC/WSJ 4/26-4/30

Bush 23
Rubio 18
Walker 14
Paul 11
Cruz 11
Carson 7
Huckabee 5
Christie 5
Perry 2
Fiorina 1

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/SECTION_More_Politics/V215179%20NBC-WSJ%20APRIL%20Poll%20%282%29.pdf


Disappointing poll, but I agree that Huckabee should receive his bump after today.

Let's be praying for all the people traveling to Hope, Arkansas for his announcement to run for President and, of course, for Governor Huckabee and Janet, his wife, his staff and advisers.

Are any of you going? That is too far for a day trip for me, since my husband is still in a rehab hospital six months after his traumatic brain injury. And while he is making great progress, he does not like for me to be gone for long. My granddaughter is graciously taking me instead to his appearance/celebration/launch party in Urbandale, IA on the 6th. Can't wait!

We also pray that he will have a fair treatment by the press. This is such an important day, and what he says will be replayed and dissected. I have confidence that this is the timing he has prayed about, and that since God has directed it he will do extremely well. He may well surprise many people, many of whom have forgotten him since 2008 or who have doubted he will run.

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PostPosted: Fri May 08, 2015 3:03 am 
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Wow, everybody is really low in this poll. Still waiting for the Huckabee-bump... (poll taken before May 5)

May 2-4

Bush 11
Paul 9
Rubio 8
Walker 8
Cruz 5
Huckabee 5
Christie 5
Carson 4
Perry 4
Kasich 4
Santorum 1
Graham 1
Jindal 1
Fiorina 1

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/bjly8n5o7b/econToplines.pdf

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PostPosted: Wed May 13, 2015 3:27 pm 
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The bump we've been waiting for finally......

PPP May poll 5/7 - 5/10

Walker 18
Rubio 13
Huckabee 12
Carson 12
Bush 11
Cruz 10
Paul 9
Christie 5
Perry 2

Quote:
Two candidates have the clear momentum in the six weeks since we did our last national Republican poll: Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee. In addition to being second place overall, Rubio is the most frequently named second choice of GOP voters at 15%. The 28% of Republicans who name him as either their first or second choice matches Walker for the top of the heap. His 13% represents a 7 point gain from his 6% standing in late March. Huckabee's gained 6 points from the last national poll we did. His 58% favorability rating is the highest of the GOP field and his net +34 rating at 58/24 is tied with Rubio's at 56/22 to make him the most popular candidate.


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_51315.pdf

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PostPosted: Thu May 14, 2015 12:14 am 
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And the new Fox poll. 5/9 - 5/12

Bush 13
Carson 13
Walker 11
Huckabee 10
Rubio 9
Paul 7
Cruz 6
Christie 6
Perry 2
Santorum 2
Kasich 2
Fiorina 1
Jindal 1
Graham 0

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/05/13/fox-news-polls-huckabee-seen-as-more-ethical-than-most-clintons-favorable-slips/

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PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2015 6:53 am 
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New Quinnipiac poll, 5/19 - 5/26

No frontrunner. Huckabee is currently 4th (tie with Ben Carson) in the RealClearPolitics average of the last 5 national primary polls.

Bush 10
Walker 10
Rubio 10
Huckabee 10
Carson 10
Paul 7
Cruz 6
Christie 4
Perry 1
Kasich 2
Santorum 2
Fiorina 2
Jindal 1
Graham 1

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2228

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PostPosted: Thu May 28, 2015 9:18 am 
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The top 5 are at 10%? All within the margin of error. Huckabee could be first. Wondering what Santorum's announcement to join the race will do.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:55 pm 
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Two new national polls. Very stable Huckabee numbers.

ABC:
Walker 11
Paul 11
Bush 10
Rubio 10
Huckabee 9
Carson 8
Cruz 8
Christie 6
Trump 4
Santorum 4
Kasich 3
Perry 2
Fiorina 2
Graham 1
http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/06/02/National-Politics/Polling/release_396.xml

CNN:
Rubio 14
Bush 13
Huckabee 10
Walker 10
Paul 8
Cruz 8
Carson 7
Perry 5
Christie 4
Trump 3
Kasich 1
Santorum 2
Fiorina 1
Graham 1
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/06/01/2016.poll.pdf

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 6:34 am 
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Disappointing new Fox poll :?

Bush 12
Walker 12
Carson 11
Paul 9
Cruz 8
Rubio 7
Huckabee 6
Christie 5
Trump 4
Perry 4
Kasich 2
Santorum 2
Fiorina 2
Graham 2

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/06/03/0603152016nsaweb/

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 04, 2015 4:27 pm 
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And another one :D

Ipsos/Reuters 5/30 - 6/3

Bush 10
Huckabee 9
Paul 8
Walker 6
Carson 6
Rubio 6
Cruz 5
Christie 5
Trump 5
Graham 3
Santorum 3
Pataki 2
Fiorina 1

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/2093376/2015-reuters-tracking-core-political-06-03-2015.pdf

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/poll-3-way-tie-for-gop-nomination-bush-huckabee-paul/article/2565598

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:54 pm 
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What does it say about the mood among Republicans primary voters, when a guy with no political experience and no chance at the nomination (in my opinion), but one who can inspire and give hope is in the lead (though in a very large and fragmented field)?

Carson 11
Walker 10
Bush 9
Rubio 9
Huckabee 8
Paul 6
Cruz 5
Christie 4
Perry 4
Santorum 3
Fiorina 2
Trump 2
Graham 2
Kasich 1
Jindal 1

(Monmouth 6/11 - 6/14)
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/1c2a9e72-6933-46c4-9d68-87d264821039.pdf

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 22, 2015 3:51 pm 
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Bump for Bush after he has announced.

Bush 22
Walker 17
Rubio 14
Carson 11
Huckabee 9
Paul 7
Perry 5
Cruz 4
Christie 4
Fiorina 2
Trump 1
Kasich 1
Graham 1
Santorum 0
Jindal 0

NBC/WSJ 6/14 - 6/18

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/first-read-jeb-bush-leads-gop-pack-n379601

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