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PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 10:35 pm 
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blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/10/24/no-way-palin-in-2012.aspx

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On Wednesday, Jon Chait predicted that Palin would be the GOP nominee for president in 2012. That’s a bet I’ll gladly take, since I happen to think there’s zero chance of it happening.

My confidence is based on five things:

1.) Infrastructure. Yes, Palin is “wildly popular with the Republican base,” as Jon says. But there’s a big difference between being popular and translating popularity into money and votes. To do the latter, you need an organization of loyal, experienced operatives willing to devote themselves fulltime to a multi-year effort. Without that stuff, you’re just Fred Thompson—a popular idea that never pans out in reality. (I’d emphasize here that Jon thought Thompson had a "very strong" shot at the GOP nomination.)

Unfortunately for Palin, the only organization she can claim outside the McCain campaign is her husband Todd and a gang of Wasilla cronies—not exactly a Lincoln-esque team of rivals. And, while it’s possible that she’ll attract some interest from veteran Washington hands rooting around for the next big thing, I doubt the likes of Bill Kristol and Grover Norquist are going to ship off to Alaska to lay the groundwork for Palin ’12. As Thompson proved, it’s not enough to have a few opportunistic wiseguys occasionally phoning in advice. You need real loyalists.

2.) Jon concedes that “some conservative commentators have attacked her,” but adds that “these are a small minority and almost all of them work for publications aimed at mainstream readers, not the conservative subculture.” I’m not sure this is right. Yes, David Brooks works for a mainstream outlet. But Kathleen Parker lacerated Palin in National Review, while Peggy Noonan did the same in the Wall Street Journal opinion pages. If there’s a better way to influence conservative opinion (at least in print), I’m not aware of it.

Anyway, I'm not so sure that the distinction between mainstream and conservative publications matters much these days. Former Bush speechwriter and conservative-in-good-standing David Frum laid into Palin in the National Post--not exactly the house organ of the conservative movement. But I doubt it passed into the ether without right-wing blog-readers hearing about it first. (Likewise, I'd guess Kristol's pronouncements in the Times get as much play on conservative blogs as his pronouncements in The Weekly Standard.)

More importantly, while I agree that Palin's critics are a minority on the right, that can hardly be reassuring to her. Partisans are loath to criticize their own in the closing weeks of a campaign. Surely numerous conservative Palin skeptics are keeping quiet till after the election, when there's no risk of hurting their party. Which is to say, we’re clearly looking at the floor for Palin criticism, not the ceiling. It’ll get much worse from here on out.

3.) The McCain campaign has expertly exploited two grievances to deflect criticism from Palin: They either dismiss it as sexism or liberal media bias. The problem in a GOP primary is that it'll be fellow Republicans--that is, Palin's rivals for the nomination--who do the criticizing, rendering the media-bias charge inoperative. And while she can try to play the gender card, it’s not a charge that typically resonates with conservatives (that is, unless they can use it to bash Democrats and the media).

4.) There will be plenty of other candidates to fill Palin’s niche in 2012--except much, much more competently. Mike Huckabee, for one, has demonstrated both an appeal to populist-minded social conservatives and an ability to speak coherently without notes or a teleprompter. Bobby Jindal has done the same. I have a hard time seeing Palin as much of a match-up for either of them.

5.) As I’ve argued before, Palin doesn’t wear well over any extended length of time—the reason being that her chief asset is novelty, which fades by definition. I’d venture that one reason she remains so popular among working-class conservatives is that they follow politics less closely than the rest of us, meaning they’ve had less time to get burnt out on her. (Though I’d concede that her appeal to this group is based on more than novelty alone.) Unfortunately, a presidential primary is one of the most drawn-out, grueling selection processes ever devised. If Palin didn’t wear well in a two-month campaign, I have a hard time believing she’ll wear well over an 18-month primary season.

Having said all that, Palin will clearly have enough residual support to mount some sort of campaign. Given her willingness to knee-cap former allies, I’m as eager as Chait for the next primary season to get here.

--Noam Scheiber


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 24, 2008 11:39 pm 
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Surely numerous conservative Palin skeptics are keeping quiet till after the election, when there's no risk of hurting their party.


As much as I agree with him, couldn't HE have kept it quiet until after election? These pundits seem to be doing their best to buy this election for Obama.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 12:34 am 
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Someone needs to remind this writer that Palin may be the VP when 2012 rolls around. :wink:

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 5:03 pm 
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Coincidently I was speaking about this with my wife, Michelle, earlier today. Palin's only chance to be president is via the VP route. I absolutely agree with your post. We are supporting the McCain/Palin ticket but, should Obama win, Palin has no chance if she campaigns for the nominee in 2012.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 5:40 pm 
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Can someone clue me as to the logic in negative posting, I gotta tell you this site has some serious serious issues.

I started reading here long after Mike dropped out and this site has apparently ignored every one of his goals.

After reading "Do Hard Things" I am now convinced the Harris twins are very proud of the site they created as a way of promoting positive political strategy.
David Golden


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 7:30 pm 
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minorson wrote:
Can someone clue me as to the logic in negative posting, I gotta tell you this site has some serious serious issues.

I started reading here long after Mike dropped out and this site has apparently ignored every one of his goals.

After reading "Do Hard Things" I am now convinced the Harris twins are very proud of the site they created as a way of promoting positive political strategy.
David Golden


David,

I read your post, and the ones above it, and couldn't figure out to whom you were speaking.

Then I reread my post, and think I may have misrepresented my own thoughts, by the quotation I selected.

All I meant was that I agree with the author that Huckabee makes a better candidate. I am NOT anti-Palin; in fact, I admire her greatly, and her presence on the ticket has given me the desire to WORK for a McCain victory (as opposed to just voting for him).

I was trying to point out that the author of this article was doing damage to the ticket by speculating about Palin's supposed weaknesses. Since the article came from a blog at The Next Right, I was working under the assumption that this author should be working FOR a McCain/Palin win.

So, thank you for your post, which caused me to review my own. I will try to write more clearly in the future.

Mary

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 9:10 pm 
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I think the commentor had a problem with the original post, not with the responding comments..

It has always been our habit to post news and blog articles that are favorable to Huck. For reasons beyond our control, those positive mentions of Huck, have of late been occuring in articles attempting to disparage Palin's appeal.

That puts us in the hard place of sharing good news and bad news in the same post. But please be assured no one on HA is invested in undermining this ticket in any way.

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 25, 2008 11:00 pm 
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I dont think it is being negative to state our honest opinions here as long as we are not nasty or attacking anyone. I don't think it is negative to state that we feel Palin is not the most qualified choice McCain could have made and that it may be adversely affecting his chances if that is what we honestly feel. We are not making public statements against anyone, but this site is suppose to be where we can come together and speak honestly of our feelings. It is a HUCKABEE site, not a Palin site, after all.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 9:12 am 
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I am sorry if my remarks hurt anyones feelings I guess my passion runs a bit too deep when politics are involved. Of course everyone is entitled to voice thier opinions and I just view this site more as a way to advance fiscal and social conservative agendas.

I have supported Mike by contibuting to and becoming a member of Huc-Pac, and watching Huckabee on Fox. Mike is no longer running for office and has asked us many times to support Candidates at all levels who share our common views and values, I have done this as well and I am sure all of you have too.

I know that the left views these posts and is energized by them. I have been following some of their sites and have become alarmed at the level of hate they display towards us.

I am simply afraid of slipping so far backwards that it will be difficult to recover.

I do wish you all well and I know you all have the good of the country at heart.

David Golden


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 11:01 am 
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Speaking for ourselves and perhaps many others on this site, we love both Governor Huckabee and Governor Palin. We are happy about the role that each is playing, and we know that each is in the place of God's choosing. Only He could have raised up both of these committed Christians to their prominence and competence on the national scene. There is no need to undermine one to elevate the other. To do so is a fleshly, divisive approach that is actually counterproductive all the way around. People who supported Governor Huckabee's campaign are not betraying him when we also embrace Governor Palin. Rather, we are submitting to God's greater plan that involves only one Head, but many members of His body serving His purposes. It would be much better to build up both Governor Huckabee and Governor Palin in their vital roles, praying for each to act as God intends, and thankfully trusting Him to lead and enable the next steps.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 11:25 am 
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DelLeslie wrote:
Speaking for ourselves and perhaps many others on this site, we love both Governor Huckabee and Governor Palin. We are happy about the role that each is playing, and we know that each is in the place of God's choosing. Only He could have raised up both of these committed Christians to their prominence and competence on the national scene. There is no need to undermine one to elevate the other. To do so is a fleshly, divisive approach that is actually counterproductive all the way around. People who supported Governor Huckabee's campaign are not betraying him when we also embrace Governor Palin. Rather, we are submitting to God's greater plan that involves only one Head, but many members of His body serving His purposes. It would be much better to build up both Governor Huckabee and Governor Palin in their vital roles, praying for each to act as God intends, and thankfully trusting Him to lead and enable the next steps.


AMEN!!

Its so easy to forget that it is what it is right now because the Lord allowed it to happen that way. We have to support both of these individuals in their current roles with our prayers. A divided house will not stand.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 11:27 am 
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This may be a little off subject but it addresses the "negativity" of this site.

As a self professed tin foil hat wearer I would have to say that it is hard to be positve towards politicians all of the time especially when we disagree with them or are afraid of their past associations and record (or lack of record).

What worries me is seeing a common and admirable family like Sarah and Todd Palin's totally trashed by the MSM and allowing a similar nuclear family in the Obama's to be elevated to messiah like adoration.

There is clearly a double standard in this election and my posts are becoming increasingly negative in pointing this out.

I will close by saying this: I wish a lot more people had been "negative" towards the likes of Hitler, Stalin, Castro, etc before they amassed so much political power which turned into dictatorships.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 12:02 pm 
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There is a responsibility to ask questions about issues & to hold politicians accountable for their actions. This does not include attacking them on a personal level. What has bothered me is the feeling of a feeding frenzy by the media & even the public. I don't want anyone to blindly support any candidate but I do not understand why the GOP seems to be determined to eat its own during the campaign. Instead of supporting the candidate until the election, so many in the GOP are discussing the negatives about both McCain & Palin without regard to how this hurts the chances in the elections (including those candidates down ballot).

McCain was pushed on the voters by the MSM & party elite. But when McCain did not consult them about his vp pick - they turned on him like rabid dogs. I don't hear the same type of thing coming from the dems. During the primaries they started out saying both Obama & Hillary were fabulous candidates. That did change for Hillary but you don't really hear anyone saying anything bad about Obama or Biden now. They are a fairly united group working together to get their ticket in the WH. You just don't hear the pundits or party officials questioning anything, even when it is something like a serious gaffe. They all jump in to spin everything to favor Obama & distract from the issue by saying something about McCain. Many in the GOP are just not working to support McCain in the election. And most of the GOP pundits seem eager to attack McCain/Palin rather than be supportive during the campaign.

I am not sure if they are too stupid to realize that they are hurting the party as a whole or if they are trying to set up a loss to promote their own agenda for 2012, or ??? About posting negative articles here. I think it can be helpful as it gives us a chance to discuss what is being said & to refute distortions or lies. McCain doesn't have the money to refute the millions Obama is spending on ads that distort the truth.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 4:53 pm 
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DelLeslie wrote:
Speaking for ourselves and perhaps many others on this site, we love both Governor Huckabee and Governor Palin. We are happy about the role that each is playing, and we know that each is in the place of God's choosing. Only He could have raised up both of these committed Christians to their prominence and competence on the national scene. There is no need to undermine one to elevate the other. To do so is a fleshly, divisive approach that is actually counterproductive all the way around. People who supported Governor Huckabee's campaign are not betraying him when we also embrace Governor Palin. Rather, we are submitting to God's greater plan that involves only one Head, but many members of His body serving His purposes. It would be much better to build up both Governor Huckabee and Governor Palin in their vital roles, praying for each to act as God intends, and thankfully trusting Him to lead and enable the next steps.


You are so right and show a lot of wisdom. God is in control.

I don't think the ticket has been hurt by Governor Palin. The ticket has been hurt, it's been by Senator McCain.

And when it comes to 2009 and beyond, I have some news, it's not about Governor Huckabee and it's not about Governor Palin. It's about our country.

Are we going to spend time tearing down a good woman and to what end?

Suppose Governor Palin doesn't run because of the huge time committment? Then we've torn down someone whose just trying to do the best she can.

Suppose Governor Palin does run and Governor Huckabee decides to stay out to avoid splitting the pro-life vote, and he chooses to back Governor Palin?

I can in no way imagine a Huckabee-Palin race going down.

If 2009 comes around with Obama, we'll need all hands on deck to fight against Amnesty, the Freedom of Choice Act, the attempts to destroy 401(k)s, etc. We need all conservatives together. We don't need to start ripping Team Sarah, because we all ought to be on the same team.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 4:56 pm 
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WhatsNotToLike? wrote:

I was trying to point out that the author of this article was doing damage to the ticket by speculating about Palin's supposed weaknesses. Since the article came from a blog at The Next Right, I was working under the assumption that this author should be working FOR a McCain/Palin win.


To clarify. In this case, TNR does not mean The Next Right, it means the New Republic.


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 26, 2008 6:33 pm 
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adamelijah wrote:
WhatsNotToLike? wrote:

I was trying to point out that the author of this article was doing damage to the ticket by speculating about Palin's supposed weaknesses. Since the article came from a blog at The Next Right, I was working under the assumption that this author should be working FOR a McCain/Palin win.


To clarify. In this case, TNR does not mean The Next Right, it means the New Republic.

Ooops! :oops: Thanks, Adam.

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