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PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 6:04 pm 
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Is Huck able to wait and then jump in last minute as the rival to Mitt?

What are some possible scenarios?


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 9:15 pm 
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I'll be honest - my mind can't help but flirt somewhat with the idea of what could happen, but I can't stand to concretely map out scenarios & build my hopes on wisps of possibilities, only to have them fall apart or never materialize.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:17 am 
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californiaforhuck wrote:
Is Huck able to wait and then jump in last minute as the rival to Mitt?

What are some possible scenarios?


I don't see him jumping in specifically to be the alternative to Mitt. It wouldn't present a unified image of the party to the general electorate, and I honestly think Huck is very concerned with that so that we can soundly beat Obama. Of course, this my guess and anything could in fact happen.

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THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:43 am 
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Miserere wrote:
californiaforhuck wrote:
Is Huck able to wait and then jump in last minute as the rival to Mitt?

What are some possible scenarios?


I don't see him jumping in specifically to be the alternative to Mitt. It wouldn't present a unified image of the party to the general electorate, and I honestly think Huck is very concerned with that so that we can soundly beat Obama. Of course, this my guess and anything could in fact happen.


I agree. I don't think he would want to fracture the party. He is too concerned about what that would do to the future of our country and would not want to have any part in an Obama victory. I sure wish we had a decent alternative to Romney!! The coming year should be interesting.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:00 am 
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If Trump runs a real campaign, Mike won't run. There is no way a GOP candidate could win if anyone runs as a 3rd party candidate (unless it was a former Democrat).

I confess, I have dreamt of a scenario where all the other candidates implode (Gingrich) or stumble into a mess of their own making (Romney's health care speech)...and then the GOP is left begging anyone out there to please run...and then Mike comes in and looks pretty darn electable to these formerly-recalcitrant GOP elites.

If, however, it's true that fully HALF of Americans do not pay any federal income tax and are "on the dole" in some way or another, it will be hard for them to vote themselves off the gravy train and elect a Republican who's talking about spending cuts and slashing entitlement programs.

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 9:02 am 
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Huck cannot wait that long becuase he only has until November to file his paperwork if he wants to run for president. I would expect at least 4-6 (maybe even more) candidates to be in the mix still in november with Iowa 3 months out still.

I day dream about Mike getting back in and this is the most likely scneario that I could see where Mike would get back in:

Sometime between June 16th and June 30th Rudy Joins the race. He polled 1st in a CNN poll (I believe) last month. I doubt he would be the frontrunner, but he would hurt romney's numbers quite a bit. Also with Huntsman in there is someone else to take from Romney.

Next is that Perry also gets in. This immediately destroys Santorum and finishes Newt off and also pulls votes from Cain and Bachmann (socons) and from TPAW and Romney (former governors).

Palin DOESNT get in.

The new race looks something like this:

Romney 18%
Rudy 17%
Perry 16%
Bachmann 11%
Paul 10%
TPAW 8%
Cain 7%
Huntsman 4%
Johnson 3%
Other/undecided 6%

Huck sees that no one can gain a plurality and gets back in. This would immediately destroy Perry (people would go with Huckabee over Perry because Perry is seen as Bush 3.0), and Cain would also be done. I would assume he would do so either mid july (with enough time to roll into the AMES Iowa poll) or he would wait until after that poll and hope that no one does super great in that poll. By the end of September things would look like this:

Mike: 28%
Rudy: 19%
Romney: 11%
Paul 8%
Bachmann 7%
TPAW 7% (TPAW might drop out by this point if he is still in single digits. He needs to be double digits and win AMES to stay in)
Huntsman 6%
Johnson 4%
Other/undecided 10%

Then its only a matter of time before TPAW and Bachmann both fall, with almost all of their support going to Huck. Huntsman and Johnson leave and split their support between Romney and Rudy. By Febraury it is a 3 man race (ok, 4 if you count Paul who will stay in just for kicks) and Rudy and Romney get to beat each other up while Huck rolls to the nomination.

So there you go! Thats how it COULD happen.


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 12:46 pm 
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Nice scenario Karrboy!

I hope that happends!


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:22 pm 
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Much as I would like the scenario of all the other Republicans failing and Huckabee reconsidering, I do not think that is how he is thinking. There is no Plan #2 at this time; he has made that clear. At least not this year.

But Huckabee also has not said, "Never," either.

In my own enthusiasm in past years, I wanted to believe he would be chosen as Vice Presidential choice for McCain. We had quite a thread going here at HA at the time. But Huckabee kept saying he did not think he was going to be the choice, and most of us didn't believe him. I am trying to remember that lesson now--that he will not irresponsibly raise false hopes. And this integrity is also probably why Huckabee announced as soon as possible after he had decided.

If something changes, it will have to start with God speaking to Gov. Huckabee's heart a different answer. I can see that pundits may increasingly rue the day they were so hard on Huckabee. I am all for them apologizing! :wink: But he still probably won't run on that basis alone.

Some have asked, "Could Huckabee be drafted to run?" I do not know if that is even possible or what would be needed for that to happen. Maybe someone here knows.

HUCKABEE 2016
HUCKABEE for Vice President 2012
Huckabee for President 2012 I would love, too, but very unlikely :balling

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 2:52 pm 
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There is already a draft huckabee site if you would like to add your name to the list of people who want to draft him. It is www.drafthuckabee2012.com


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