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PostPosted: Mon Mar 12, 2012 1:09 am 
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This article doesn't go into the numbers as deeply as I do, but I submit my theory that if Huckabee had made a different decision last May, he would have wrapped this up by the Michigan primary if not by FL.

Here is what I came up with. It is my the"ory that Huckabee would have locked up the "inevitable" title possibly as early as FL or Michigan, but most definitely by OH.

He would have easily won IA, SC, FL,OH,GA,TN,ND.

Having witnessed what almost happened in MI there is an argument to be made that having won IA,SC, FL, CO and MN---Huckabee may have beaten Romney at Michigan which would arguably have really put the fork in him.

Huckabee delegate count 2012 Scenario by Mar 6th
393 delegates
12 1st place finishes
8 2nd place finishes
1 3rd place finish
Iowa 25 1st place Jan 3
NH 5 2nd place Jan 10
SC 23 1st place Jan 21
FL 50 1st place Jan 31
ME 3 3rd place Feb 4
NV 10 2nd place Feb 4
CO 20 1st Feb 7
MN 37 1st Feb 7
AZ 0 2nd place Feb 28
MI 16 1st place Feb 28
WA 10 2nd Mar 3
AK 15 1st Mar 6
GA 76 1st Mar 6
ID 0 2nd Mar 6
MA 0 2nd Mar 6
ND 15 1st Mar 6
OH 40 1st Mar 6
OK 38 1st Mar 6
TN 35 1st Mar 6
VT 5 2nd Mar 6
VA 43 1st Mar 6
WY 0 2nd Mar 6

Romney: 215 delegates
9 1st place finishes
10 2nd place
2 3rd place finishes
IA 0 2nd place
NH 7 1st
SC 2 2nd
FL 0 2nd
ME 11 1st
NV 12 1st
CO 7 2nd
MN 0 3rd
AZ 29 1st
MI 14 2nd
WA 20 1st
GA 0 2nd
ID 32 1st
MA 38 1st
ND 5 3rd
OH 12 2nd
OK 4 2nd
TN 10 2nd
VT 8 1st
VA 0 2nd
WY 4 1st

Looking at the upcoming primary calendar Romney would not have any favorable match ups until Mar 13 in Hawaii, and then MD almost a month later after Super Tuesday on April 3rd. But honestly, I don't see how Romney makes it past a loss in MI and Super Tuesday under what I believe would have been a realistic scenario.

Dan Higgins
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