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PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2015 8:36 am 
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Sean Trende analyses the current state of likely outcome.

On Governor Huckabee:
Quote:
Mike Huckabee (1 percent): I’ll admit I am a bit surprised by how poorly Huckabee has fared this time around. He checks off a lot of the boxes needed for a strong showing in Iowa, and he won the caucuses in 2008 (by one of the widest margins in the past 40 years). He’s arguably the most talented politician in the field and has a good way of connecting with voters. But it seems like 2008 was probably his year, and this time around there are just more candidates with similar backgrounds but fresher faces. Like Paul, he can make a credible case for a last-minute surge, but it doesn’t seem terribly likely at this point.


Full article: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/12/10/laying_odds_on_the_gop_presidential_race_128994.html

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2015 8:44 am 
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His most likely predicted single outcome: No one wins the nomination straight on. (He does give the pair Rubio/Cruz together, either of them winning, a chance of 31%)

[url]No One (25 percent): My most likely scenario is still that no one wins a sufficient number of delegates to claim the nomination. As Nate Silver lays it out, this comes in three different “flavors”: (1) No one wins, but someone is close enough that the writing is on the wall; (2) no one wins, but things get sorted out at the convention; (3) no one wins, and it is fought out on the convention floor. I agree with Silver that these are presented in decreasing order of likelihood, and actually put the overall percentages lower than he did (and lower than I did last winter).

But I still think there’s a very good chance this happens, for a lot of the reasons I wrote about in January. It’s a deep field, without an overall frontrunner; super PACs can keep candidates standing past their normal expiration date; and (perhaps most importantly) the calendar creates incentives for candidates to stay in as long as they can. After the early proportional representation states is a treasure-trove of winner-take-all states, which could catapult an also-ran to first place. Again, this isn’t more likely than not to occur, but it’s still the most likely single outcome, in my book.[/url]

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2015 11:38 am 
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Thanks, Peter, for giving us these links and info about the politics going on now. It gives us ways to pray and work toward our goal. If we truly believe that Gov. Huckabee is most capable and qualified to be President, and best for this country, let's let that charge and re-energize us. We can't believe everything the polls say or the pundits. Mike Huckabee is working harder than anyone on the ground in Iowa. In December and January he has 161 scheduled visits or events. Plus, the media always has a microphone in his face.

Let's be his HucksArmy again!

Peter wrote:
Sean Trende analyses the current state of likely outcome.

On Governor Huckabee:
Quote:
Mike Huckabee (1 percent): I’ll admit I am a bit surprised by how poorly Huckabee has fared this time around. He checks off a lot of the boxes needed for a strong showing in Iowa, and he won the caucuses in 2008 (by one of the widest margins in the past 40 years). He’s arguably the most talented politician in the field and has a good way of connecting with voters. But it seems like 2008 was probably his year, and this time around there are just more candidates with similar backgrounds but fresher faces. Like Paul, he can make a credible case for a last-minute surge, but it doesn’t seem terribly likely at this point.


Full article: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/12/10/laying_odds_on_the_gop_presidential_race_128994.html

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