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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:32 pm 
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http://www.wtvr.com/global/story.asp?s=7853147

The Highlights:

John McCain: 48% (-9%)
Mike Huckabee: 37% (+12%)

This is really good news. It shows massive momentum. We can really pull this thing off!


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:33 pm 
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Wow, cool.

Keep calling VA, everyone.

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:34 pm 
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:lol: :shock: :lol: WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:35 pm 
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AWESOME!!!!!!!
8) 8)

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:37 pm 
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Quote:
Eve of VA GOP Primary 2/11/08: Huckabee Closes-In On McCain: Big movement in Virginia following Mike Huckabee's strong showing over the weekend in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington state. On the eve of the Virginia Republican Primary, it's John McCain 48%, Mike Huckabee 37%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 72 hours ago, McCain is down 9, Huckabee is up 12. McCain had led by 32, now leads by 11. Among Conservative voters, McCain had led by 21, now trails by 5. Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 20 points, now trails by 6. Among voters in Southeast VA, McCain had led by 28, now trails by 12. Among voters focused on Immigration, McCain had led by 16, now trails by 17. Among voters who attend religious services regularly, McCain had led by 24, now trails by 2.


Now, if the indies stay in the dem primary to vote for Obama, we are going to smoke this thing tomorrow!

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:38 pm 
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That is good news. But the sample size on that poll is really small


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:39 pm 
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1/4 of likely voters say it's still possible they could change their mind! Nearly split as to who they're currently going for. CALLS TO VA!


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 4:59 pm 
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Hopefully this momentum continues for the next 24 hours, carrying Huck to a huge Potomac win!

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:00 pm 
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The phone calls are our best chance to get Huckabee voters OUT TO VOTE and to sway undecided voters. I got a democrat to commit to voting for Huckabee because wanted to mess things up for McCain. I was also able to encourage two Ron Paul supporters to vote for Huckabee in order to stop McCain -- telling them about what we did in West Virginia working with Paul supporters. :D

MAKE PHONE CALLS! We're down to 20,000 calls left out of 60,000 into Virginia. We then need to get started on Maryland since that phone bank is now open. :D

DO HARD THINGS!


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:08 pm 
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Keep going Huck's Army -- and make calls to let undecided voters in Virginia know about Governor Huckabee's true conservative credentials and endorsements -- like Paul Weyrich the cofounder of the Heritage Foundation.

Otherwise they might stay home or write-in Romney as one woman I talked to today was going to do. Fortunately, I took some time to tell them the TRUTH about Huckabee and even this rabid Rush fan ended up telling me that I convinced her to go pull the lever for Huckbee and take her son and daughter-in-law with her to do the same. : )

Calling is a real chore -- but when you have a chance to connect with someone it can really make a difference. I have had MANY people tell me how impressed they are that I would take time to make LIVE calls.

Unfortunately, the laundry is piling up and I have to drive carpool in an hour. But it is worth it to know that I am doing my part to help put a good man in office.

So if you have a few minutes -- make a few calls. God can do A LOT with a couple fish and some loaves of bread. : )

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:09 pm 
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Paul Weyrich's endorsement should help continue the surge, as well as Rush and Sean playing nice. This should give the Romney people the ok to pull the lever for Mike. The HSDLA email is great. We home school our kids and let me tell you we are a politically active group of people. This should help the different HS groups get behind Mike.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:10 pm 
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One of the comments in the poll is exactly what I've been saying, and that is if we had another week these numbers would be oh so different.

I feel like we need to be within 3 points in order for our advantage in turnout to make the difference. I think we were probably down by around 9 instead of 11 closing out Sunday. Can we make up 6 more points in one day? I don't know, but like the rest of you I'll be making some calls to see what we can do.

If we can just get a lot closer that might be enough to show momentum and help us take Wisconsin, and then Ohio and Texas. As I've said on other threads, if we don't get a win in Virginia then I feel we'll HAVE to win both Texas and Ohio and win them big enough to take most of the delegates.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:13 pm 
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This poll shows that Huckabee is surging in Central and Southeastern Virginia.


In just 2 days in Virginia:

Northeast Virginia:
Huckabee up 5 points
McCain down 6 points
Others (Romney) up 1 point

Shenandoah:
Huckabee up 8 points
McCain down 6 points
Undecideds down 2 points

Southeast Virginia:
Huckabee up 20 points
McCain down 20 points
Paul down 1 point
Others (Romney) down 1 point
Undecideds up 2 points

Central Virginia:
Huckabee up 15 points
McCain down 5 points
Paul down 6 points
Others (Romney) down 3 points
Undecideds down 1 point


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:21 pm 
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Keep making calls, everyone!!!!! We saw it work in Kansas, and we are reaching a lot of VA undecideds!!!!

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:25 pm 
What is the weather supposed to be like tomorrow in Virginia? Is it wrong to pray for snow in the McCain areas and sunshine in Central and Southeastern Virginia - Huckabee country!

EricB wrote:
This poll shows that Huckabee is surging in Central and Southeastern Virginia.


In just 2 days in Virginia:

Northeast Virginia:
Huckabee up 5 points
McCain down 6 points
Others (Romney) up 1 point

Shenandoah:
Huckabee up 8 points
McCain down 6 points
Undecideds down 2 points

Southeast Virginia:
Huckabee up 20 points
McCain down 20 points
Paul down 1 point
Others (Romney) down 1 point
Undecideds up 2 points

Central Virginia:
Huckabee up 15 points
McCain down 5 points
Paul down 6 points
Others (Romney) down 3 points
Undecideds down 1 point


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:26 pm 
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This is GREAT news! Lets keep up the calls and pull out a W!

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:32 pm 
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Here's another point to remember. These polls only reflect trends. They don't reflect actual votes. In almost every state up until now Huckabee has done BETTER than the last polls had him doing, not by a lot, but a little. Remember: the polls in Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama had Huckabee losing. Missouri had us in 3rd place behind McCain and Romney. Oklahoma had us way back by about 10 points and we almost won. Iowa had us up by a point or two, and we won by nine points. Go down the line. In almost every state, Huckabee exceeded expectations with few exceptions. Huckabee has closed a 32 point gap to an 11 point gap in two days from Thursday/Friday polling to Saturday/Sunday polling. This despite the fact that Huckabee usually polls worse on the weekends. Add to that the fact that Rasmussen has Huckabee surging too, and we have to conclude that the surge is real. Virginia is going to be very close.

Here's an analysis of what the individual days might be:

Thursday & Friday polling: Huckabee down 32 points
Saturday & Sunday polling: Huckabee down 11 points

If you assume that Huckabee is surging linearly (that is, by the same amount each day).

Thursday: McCain up 37.25 points
Friday: McCain up 26.75 points
Saturday: McCain up 16.25 points
Sunday: McCain up 5.75 points


I don't expect this trend to continue by this huge of a margin, but clearly Huckabee could be only down 5-6 points as of Sunday. Considering there are two more days to go and the fact that Huckabee usually does better than his final polls show him doing (because of turnout), Huckabee has a VERY good chance of winning Virginia. I predict that he wins by a few points.


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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:36 pm 
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EricB wrote:
Here's another point to remember. These polls only reflect trends. They don't reflect actual votes. In almost every state up until now Huckabee has done BETTER than the last polls had him doing, not by a lot, but a little. Remember: the polls in Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama had Huckabee losing. Missouri had us in 3rd place behind McCain and Romney. Oklahoma had us way back by about 10 points and we almost won. Iowa had us up by a point or two, and we won by nine points. Go down the line. In almost every state, Huckabee exceeded expectations with few exceptions. Huckabee has closed a 32 point gap to an 11 point gap in two days from Thursday/Friday polling to Saturday/Sunday polling. This despite the fact that Huckabee usually polls worse on the weekends. Add to that the fact that Rasmussen has Huckabee surging too, and we have to conclude that the surge is real. Virginia is going to be very close.

Here's an analysis of what the individual days might be:

Thursday & Friday polling: Huckabee down 32 points
Saturday & Sunday polling: Huckabee down 11 points

If you assume that Huckabee is surging linearly (that is, by the same amount each day).

Thursday: McCain up 37.25 points
Friday: McCain up 26.75 points
Saturday: McCain up 16.25 points
Sunday: McCain up 5.75 points


I don't expect this trend to continue by this huge of a margin, but clearly Huckabee could be only down 5-6 points as of Sunday. Considering there are two more days to go and the fact that Huckabee usually does better than his final polls show him doing (because of turnout), Huckabee has a VERY good chance of winning Virginia. I predict that he wins by a few points.


I appreciate your analysis, Eric. Thanks!

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:45 pm 
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This is so encouraging! We had a great rally with Mike today in VA. Beach! I believe over 500 attended....we packed the room! Everybody wanted to help and the press were amazed, so we should get some good news coverage. Duncan Hunter and Michael Farris are stumping with him today in VA and he announced his endorsement by Paul Weyrich (sp?) at our rally!

Laura

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PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2008 5:46 pm 
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We definately need to keep up the phone calls in Virginia and Maryland via the phone bank at http://www.mikehuckabee.com I'm going to be dialing until 9pm EST, how about you? :D

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