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PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 3:48 pm 
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Q17 If the Republican candidates for President in
2012 were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich,
Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim
Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump
who would you vote for?
Michele Bachmann ......................................... 9%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 10%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 28%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 8%
Ron Paul ......................................................... 6%
Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 5%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 13%
Donald Trump ................................................. 12%
Someone else/Undecided............................... 9%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MO_0505.pdf

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PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 4:00 pm 
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Wow! those are fantastic numbers for Mike!

Is it just me or is Trump hurting different candidates in different states?


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PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 4:19 pm 
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Wow indeed! That's not even close.

MO use to be seen as a bell weather state. Undoubtly now we will hear how that is no longer true. :roll:

Even so this furthers the trend we have seen for a long time. The more traditionally aligned the electorate of a given state is with mainstream conservatism, the better Huck does.

Huck has the BIG MO!

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PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 4:55 pm 
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This is phenomenal. No one else is close. No margin of error concern here. Yes, I wonder what the effect that Trump has had here and elsewhere. It does not seem to have hurt Gov. Huckabee.

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PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 5:29 pm 
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justgrace wrote:
This is phenomenal. No one else is close. No margin of error concern here. Yes, I wonder what the effect that Trump has had here and elsewhere. It does not seem to have hurt Gov. Huckabee.


The reason I asked the question is because in New Hampshire he cuts into Romney's lead, in West Virginia he takes away from Mike, and in Missouri he takes away from Newt.


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PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 5:54 pm 
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BDBopper wrote:
justgrace wrote:
This is phenomenal. No one else is close. No margin of error concern here. Yes, I wonder what the effect that Trump has had here and elsewhere. It does not seem to have hurt Gov. Huckabee.


The reason I asked the question is because in New Hampshire he cuts into Romney's lead, in West Virginia he takes away from Mike, and in Missouri he takes away from Newt.


Thanks, Brian.

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PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 5:58 pm 
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BDBopper wrote:
Wow! those are fantastic numbers for Mike!

Is it just me or is Trump hurting different candidates in different states?


Aron at the Argo Journal includes previous polls on his site that could help you see trends like that.
http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2011/05/poll-watch-ppp-d-missouri-2012.html

Quote:
* Mike Huckabee 28% {29%} [27%] (32%)
* Mitt Romney 13% {13%} [14%] (22%)
* Donald Trump 12%
* Newt Gingrich 10% {19%} [15%]
* Michele Bachmann 9%
* Sarah Palin 8% {14%} [25%] (28%)
* Ron Paul 6% {7%} [5%]
* Tim Pawlenty 5% {3%} [3%]
* Someone else/Undecided 9% {10%} [9%]

[big clip]

Survey of 400 Missouri Republican primary voters was conducted April 28 - May 1, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 40% {41%} Very conservative; 37% {39%} Somewhat conservative; 18% {15%} Moderate; 4% {4%} Somewhat liberal; 1% {1%} Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted March 3-6, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 29 - December 1, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 27-29, 2010 are in parentheses.

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PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 6:03 pm 
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Notice from Aron's summary in my post above that when it was just Huckabee, Romney, and Palin they all had larger numbers. Their numbers change with the addition of new potential candidates. Romney has lost 9 points from his high of 22. Palin has lost 20 points from her high of 28. Huckabee only lost 4 points from his high of 32 even though 5 additional candidates have been added.

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PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 6:34 pm 
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What were the favorables for the candidates. My adobe reader is messed up, and it wont let me view the poll.

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PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 6:37 pm 
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Texan4Huckabee wrote:
What were the favorables for the candidates. My adobe reader is messed up, and it wont let me view the poll.


http://race42012.com/2011/05/06/poll-wa ... -survey-2/

:pompom

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PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2011 11:04 am 
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Craig88USC wrote:
Texan4Huckabee wrote:
What were the favorables for the candidates. My adobe reader is messed up, and it wont let me view the poll.


http://race42012.com/2011/05/06/poll-watch-ppp-d-missouri-2012-republican-primary-survey-2/


You might want to save the link to is the Argo Journal - the place that Race usually quotes from: http://argojournal.blogspot.com/ If you know the dates to the poll you are looking for it's usually not very hard to find Aron's summary.

Here's the direct link to the summary for the MO poll on Aron's site: http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2011/05/poll-watch-ppp-d-missouri-2012.html

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PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2011 11:15 am 
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What I have noticed over the last couple of months, is that Newt's numbers have slid down. Plus there was an article out recently where Newt did not raise many funds toward a 2012 run. Surprised that he is going to announce next week.

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PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2011 11:30 am 
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ConservTexan wrote:
What I have noticed over the last couple of months, is that Newt's numbers have slid down. Plus there was an article out recently where Newt did not raise many funds toward a 2012 run. Surprised that he is going to announce next week.



Newt's only chance at this point is for neither Daniels nor Huck to enter the race. Otherwise he will need a VERY big crack-up among the likely leaders that will allow him to win by default. Doubt it.

At this point though he has little to loose in throwing his hat in the ring, collecting some money and influence, had seeing what happens.

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PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2011 11:33 am 
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ConservTexan wrote:
What I have noticed over the last couple of months, is that Newt's numbers have slid down. Plus there was an article out recently where Newt did not raise many funds toward a 2012 run. Surprised that he is going to announce next week.


Newt did much better a month or so ago, didn't he? I was talking to someone yesterday about Huckabee waiting and she reminded me how the early front-runners seldom are the ones who end up at the top by the end the primary race.

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PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2011 11:51 am 
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justgrace wrote:
ConservTexan wrote:
What I have noticed over the last couple of months, is that Newt's numbers have slid down. Plus there was an article out recently where Newt did not raise many funds toward a 2012 run. Surprised that he is going to announce next week.


Newt did much better a month or so ago, didn't he? I was talking to someone yesterday about Huckabee waiting and she reminded me how the early front-runners seldom are the ones who end up at the top by the end the primary race.


Yes, but in 4 of the last 5 GOP primary races (if I'm remembering correctly) that has been true. Giuliani last year was the exception, but he wasn't coming off a strong performance in the previous election cycle and sporting an obvious path to the nomination like someone I know, was he?

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PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2011 1:15 pm 
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cschande wrote:
justgrace wrote:
ConservTexan wrote:
What I have noticed over the last couple of months, is that Newt's numbers have slid down. Plus there was an article out recently where Newt did not raise many funds toward a 2012 run. Surprised that he is going to announce next week.


Newt did much better a month or so ago, didn't he? I was talking to someone yesterday about Huckabee waiting and she reminded me how the early front-runners seldom are the ones who end up at the top by the end the primary race.


Yes, but in 4 of the last 5 GOP primary races (if I'm remembering correctly) that has been true. Giuliani last year was the exception, but he wasn't coming off a strong performance in the previous election cycle and sporting an obvious path to the nomination like someone I know, was he?

Here's a quote from Texas Conservative's "I like Mike Huckabee 2012" blog at
http://ilikemikehuckabee2012.blogspot.com/2011/05/mike-huckabee-continues-to-lead-cnn.html
Quote:
CNN Nuggets:

GOP primary match-ups are another matter – since the modern era of presidential primaries began in 1972, there have been six times when the GOP nomination was up for grabs. In five of those six election cycles, the eventual GOP winner was leading the polls taken in April of the previous year.


Mike was leading the Real Clear Politics averages pretty much the whole month of may. But, it was VERY close. IMHO the race will be between Mike and Mitt. Both of them have consistently polled near the top of most polls and both of them consistently poll the best against Obama. They both also can claim the "next in line" title. (Mike because of 2nd most delegates and Mitt because of 2nd most votes - even though Mike stayed in the race a month longer than Mitt) It will be a knock down drag out fight between the two and which ever one wins will need to choose a VP to bring the competitors supporters on board. If Mitt wins I don't think I could vote for him unless he chooses a VP with a very strong SoCon background. I'm still not sure he's really latched on to the SoCon values. He even supported SoLibs during the 2010 election cycle - which makes me doubt his "conversion" even more. Although I believe Reagan's conversion was genuine - he still appointed some questionable judges. If someone has the time and means to do so, a blog article comparing several of the gubernatorial candidates running for POTUS judicial appointments might be very beneficial information to use during the campaign. How many of them decided cases on the right side? Did any of the potential candidates appoint judges that decided hard cases coming out on the wrong side? I have a hunch Mike's appointments could be some of the best.

Another thing that might be useful is how many questionable pieces of legislation became law in Arkansas without Mike's signature or an overridden veto? IMO there are some anti-Huckabee "facts" that shouldn't be listed because Mike couldn't stop them. That 3% income tax surcharge is one of them for sure. It was passed without Mike's signature. But, he did sign the repeal.

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