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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 7:19 am 
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The president stacks up well against the two GOP contenders polled in a match-up with him — former Govs. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. Asked whom they would vote for if the election was held today, 51 percent would “definitely” or “probably” choose the president, while 38 percent chose Romney. Against Pawlenty, Obama lead 50 percent to 36 percent.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/05 ... z1MW8NhHRU

Obama is beating Romney by 13 points in the new Politico poll this morning: 51 to 38.

1. Romney cannot beat Obama without putting Huck on the ticket, imho.

2. Pawlenty is losing by even more to Obama in this mornings poll.

3. Obama will be tough to beat (unlike an open White House seat in '16) as unemployment is due to drop about a point between now and Nov. '12. And getting Bin Laden was huge. Also Obama is a likeable guy who does well in the favorables*.

Conclusion, imho..

Mike will more than likely be picked as VP candidate by each of these:

T-Paw/HUCK
Daniels/HUCK
Newt/HUCK
HUNTSMAN/HUCK
Romney/HUCK
Christie/HUCK
_______ / HUCK

..which sets Huck up for next in line 2016 if we lose to Obama .. or 2020 if the Republican ticket with Huck as VP should go on to win in '12.

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 7:32 am 
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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 7:47 am 
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Doubt he'd accept an invite to join a ticket that will in most likelyhood lose.


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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 7:50 am 
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steves wrote:
Doubt he'd accept an invite to join a ticket that will in most likelyhood lose.



If the ticket loses, then Huck is next in line for 2016 versus probably Hillary or Cuomo. 8)

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 8:02 am 
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Huckabee leaves wide-open GOP presidential field

By Susan Page, USA TODAYUpdated 8h 21m ago |

— The announcement by former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee that he won't run for president in 2012 leaves a Republican field that is more wide open than any since World War II.

Mike Huckabee decided he will not run for president in 2012. "There are a number of people who probably jumped for joy," he said.

"It's like 52-card pickup," says Mark McKinnon, a strategist for former president George W. Bush. "Huckabee's decision totally reshapes the race."

The decision by the former Arkansas governor strengthens the hand of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, now more clearly the field's front-runner. It creates an opportunity for lesser-known contenders to seek the support of the social conservative voters who backed Huckabee. And it makes the opening Iowa caucuses, which he won in 2008, more competitive for everyone else.

"I've never seen it this fluid this late in the game," says Steve Scheffler, chairman of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition and a member of the Republican National Committee. While much of the nation sees the election as a distant prospect, Iowa's opening caucuses mean grass-roots organizations and candidate appearances typically are well underway by now.

This time, even local headquarters have been slow to open, Scheffler says. Texas Rep. Ron Paul rented headquarters last week, and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty is likely to do so shortly.

The Republican lineup is as notable for those who have taken a pass as for those who have jumped in. Besides Huckabee, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence and South Dakota Sen. John Thune have taken a look at the race and decided not to enter it.

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels promises a decision soon, and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin— whose lucrative career as a speaker and media personality was launched with her nomination for vice president in 2008 — hasn't made her intentions clear.

Gingrich and Paul formally launched their campaigns last week. Real estate mogul Donald Trump is slated to appear at a Tea Party rally in South Carolina this week, and former Utah governor Jon Huntsman is scheduled to spend much of this week in New Hampshire, which holds the nation's first presidential primary.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and Pawlenty are raising money and making appearances in states with early contests.


None has the name recognition and built-in support Huckabee can claim, especially among the evangelical Christians and Southerners, who make up key parts of the GOP base.


Huckabee says any of several candidates may be beneficiaries of his decision to continue his career with his Saturday night show on Fox, the forum he used to announce he wouldn't run.

"There are a number of people who probably jumped for joy" that he isn't running, Huckabee said on Fox News Sunday. He cited Santorum, Gingrich, Pawlenty and Bachmann as having potential appeal to social conservatives. And "Sarah Palin, should she decide to get in. I think people are awaiting her decision like they were mine."

Ed Rollins, the veteran Republican strategist who was chairman of Huckabee's 2008 campaign, says there is "no natural heir" for Huckabee's mantle.

"It's Romney vs. the field," Rollins says. "There's usually a front-runner and a chaser. We have no idea who the chaser is going to be."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2 ... dent_n.htm

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 8:07 am 
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Obama Job Approval Rebounds Amid Discontent, Economic Concerns

By Julie Hirschfeld Davis - May 16, 2011 3:26 AM PT

A majority of voters approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing, even as a larger proportion express concern about his handling of the economy, according to a new Politico-GW Battleground Poll.

The survey found that 52 percent approve of Obama’s overall job performance -- a seven percentage point increase from its last measure in October 2010.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-1 ... cerns.html

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 8:12 am 
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I'm pretty sure this weighed very heavily in Huck's decision...

President Obama polls well despite jobs fears

By ANDY BARR | 5/15/11 10:52 PM EDT Updated: 5/16/11 8:07 AM EDT

Despite widespread disapproval of Barack Obama’s handling of the economy, more than half of Americans approve of the president and are open to reelecting him.

The economy and government spending stand as the dominant issues on the minds of the 1,000 registered voters surveyed nationwide for the latest POLITICO-George Washington University Battleground Poll, with 48 percent identifying either “the economy and jobs” or “government spending and the budget deficit” as the top issues.

The poll was conducted by Democratic firm Lake Research Partners and the Tarrance Group, a Republican polling firm.

But the president seems — at least for now — surprisingly immune to economic fears, the poll shows. Fifty-two percent of those surveyed approve of Obama’s handling of his job, up 7 percentage points from the most recent Battleground Poll, conducted in October. Additionally, 72 percent approve of Obama personally, up 7 percentage points since October.

The president’s strong approval ratings are buttressed by the 59 percent who said they will either “definitely” vote for the president or “consider” reelecting him. Thirty-eight percent “definitely will not” vote for the president’s reelection — giving Obama a higher ceiling of support than his Republican rivals would hope to see.

(...)

The poll also flashed an ominous sign for Republicans urging GOP leaders to fight raising the debt ceiling. Fifty-six percent believe failing to raise the debt ceiling will be “disastrous” for the country, compared with 32 percent who think it will not have a “serious impact.”

The poll was conducted May 8-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/05 ... z1MW6g38hJ

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 8:45 am 
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The poll was taken before Huck dropped out. The Argo Journal didn't post any results for the contest against Huck. I can't see the results from the chart Aron linked to on my iPod. Does that link say anything?

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 9:43 am 
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Craig88USC wrote:
steves wrote:
Doubt he'd accept an invite to join a ticket that will in most likelyhood lose.



If the ticket loses, then Huck is next in line for 2016 versus probably Hillary or Cuomo. 8)

His path to the nomination (and Presidency)will never be better than it was two days ago. If he didn't think he could win then, surely he wouldn't join a ticket with someone inferior (which the rest of the field is).....
I hope this decision was not a knee-jerk reaction to the polling bump Obama has gotten since the OBL killing...that would be an absolute shame!


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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 10:40 am 
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Donna,

This is all that I can find..

Monday, May 16
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread

President Obama Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 49, Disapprove 50 Disapprove +1

President Obama Job Approval Politico/GWU/Battleground Approve 52, Disapprove 44 Approve +8

Direction of Country Politico/GWU/Battleground Right Direction 32, Wrong Track 60 Wrong Track +28

Repeal of Health Care Law: Favor/Oppose Politico/GWU/Battleground Favor Repeal 49, Oppose Repeal 42 Favor Repeal +7

General Election: Romney vs. Obama Politico/GWU/Battleground Obama 52, Romney 40 Obama +12

General Election: Pawlenty vs. Obama Politico/GWU/Battleground Obama 52, Pawlenty 38 Obama +14


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 10:43 am 
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... dates.html

Obama is running away with it.

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 11:14 am 
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Craig,
Thank you for looking for me and posting what you found.

IMO part of the reason God told Mike "No" is because it is very hard to beat a sitting President. I wouldn't want Huckabee to be the GOP "sacrificial lamb". Whether or not he'll have another chance in 2016 or 2020 will probably depend on where God leads in the next 4-8 years. I would love for Huckabee to get a top spot on FOXNEWS and talk radio to practice some more vertical politics and increase his favorables even more.

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 11:26 am 
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At least this will hopefully finally put to rest the Romney-boughts' claim that Huckabee divided the conservative ticket when they see that GH's supporters don't flock to Romney from here.



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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 11:39 am 
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It very well may be that yet another reason Huckabee didn't choose to run is because he's smart enough to realize that the President has pretty good odds at this point and that 2016 will be a new ball game, with neither party being able to have incumbency at the White House. I doubt seriously that Joe Biden would ever run. And, while the GOP has a pretty deep bench of folks who could be viable in 2016 (think Jindal, Rubio), the Democrats don't from what I can see. Most of the powerbrokers on the Democratic side are older. Who are the up-and-coming Democrats who have a national profile? I can't think of too many but can think of a lot of up-and-coming Republicans.

What may have happened last week is that Huckabee saw that the quest to unseat the President in the wake of the bin Laden operation and the end of the birther issue is not going to be as smooth a cruise as it looked like it was going to be a short time ago. Although he had a first class ticket on the cruise, maybe he saw something that looked like "White Star Line" on the side of the ship and decided he'd wait for the next voyage. Of course, when the next voyage comes around, the weather will be better and the iceburgs will have melted.

If I'm Huck, I might think of the following:
Option A:
- Hop into the contest. Get revved up for a frenetic pace of life for the next two years and hopefully the next ten years. Forget about spending time with the grandkids or actually getting to see the new house.
- Take some more abuse from the Manhattan Conservatives (several of whom may actually be retired by 2016).
- Scrap your way to the nomination, fighting for every inch of territory.
- Face off against an incumbent President whose odds of being re-elected recently got significantly higher.

Option B:
- Use the talk show and multimedia platform he has to be the voice for common sense conservative views in this country. Everybody now wants to be his friend. Even Mitt, strangely enough.
- Keep building the financial security he's worked for his whole life and be able to spend time with his family.
- Watch what could be an ugly contest play out from the safety of his studio on Sixth Avenue. Comfort the casualties of the political contest but yet don't become one.
- If Obama does get re-elected, then, in 2016, after the field is considerably thinned out and the vanquished competitors are no longer viable for 2016, he steps out from behind the podium and is suddenly the most visible and viable option.

Just thinking out loud.

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 11:44 am 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
At least this will hopefully finally put to rest the Romney-boughts' claim that Huckabee divided the conservative ticket when they see that GH's supporters don't flock to Romney from here.


You are right!

I keep thinking about that analogy Dick Morris came up with about Romney and the dog food company that finally realizes that it can't sell the product because the dogs won't eat it. Romney looks more and more like a joke with every passing day on the campaign field. I really don't care for the guy but even I felt sort of bad for him while watching him try to explain why Romneycare is different from Obamacare. Watching Romney is like watching a political version of a train derailment. Watching it in slow motion and on an auto-repeat loop. It's pretty brutal. It's going to be interesting to see what excuse they come up with for his eventual collapse in this election cycle. At least they can't blame Huckabee.

P.S. - does anyone else agree that watching the Romney speech about Romneycare last week was like watching a bad American Idol audition? Even if you don't think you like the guy, it still sort of hurts on a human level to see them humiliating themselves - and not realizing how bad they look to the world?


Simon: Okay, Mitt ... so you say you're from Massachusetts. And Utah. And California. And .. okay, so, Mitt, what do you have for us tonight?


Romney: I'm going to sing a song I wrote:

(Hard rock music)
You want me to admit I made a mistake
But I am telling you that I am not a fake
I did what I thought was right for my state
But I now look foolish, and that part I hate ...


Simon: Stop, stop, stop. How are you able to ... to stand there and sing about how you did the right thing but that the President's song was atrocious.



Romney: Wait, wait. Give me another chance. I've got another song.

(Soft ballad)
My plan is not the thing he's planned
I'd explain it, but you won't understand.
Forget the bill itself, just look between the lines
If you won't get insured, I charged a lot less in ... fines.

Simon: Stop!!!

Romney: But I can sing!!! Want to see me do gangsta rap? I'm very flexible!!

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 11:49 am 
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I can also envision Huck playing a key part in promoting, endorsing, campaigning, and money raising to insure we take over the US Senate (preventing Obama from appointing radical judges) and hold the House.

Of course, he could do all that and run for Veep at the same time :)

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 11:53 am 
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A short while ago, I posted a nasty remark about another candidate. Just want to thank the Mods for doing their job!
LOL

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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 5:55 pm 
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I think Governor Huckabee made it very clear that he didn't give much thought to the presidency during the 3 yrs he has been at FOX and he is not interested in being president and we have to respect that decision. As he said, everything was looking good for a go but his heart said no...I think this was his best shot. In 2016 all sorts of new blood will be out there. Marco Rubio, Ryan, probably Jeb Bush and many more. Huckabee must have realized this was "do or die" for his political career and chose "political death." I wish him all the best and hope people will continue to watch his show but I believe people watched Huckabee the politician and future presidential candidate, not Huckabee the talk show host.


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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 7:11 pm 
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Doesn't matter what the polls say about Romney because Romney isn't going to be the nominee. He's way too liberal and seen as supporting ObamaCare. He's toast.

I don't know who it'll be, but it won't be Romney.


Here's an early prediction. Romney doesn't win a single primary or caucus in any state. I think he gets single digits in Iowa, then gets beat in New Hampshire, and then he's out.


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PostPosted: Mon May 16, 2011 8:36 pm 
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Folks, I wouldn't put to much stock in Obama's current poll numbers. Actually, the fact that he didn't really get much of a boost even after Bin Laden got what he deserved doesn't bode that well for BHO. If gas prices are still at $4.00 a gallon and unemployment still at 9% a year from now, any decent GOP candidate should be able to beat Obama. Of course, it remains to be seen if we can produce a decent candidate to go up against him now. :|

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