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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 7:33 am 
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http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2 ... now-final/

Interesting turn of events! The Iowa Straw poll is COUNTING write-in votes for the first time. Theoretically, G.H. can WIN this important poll even though he isn't currently a Presidential candidate. Talk about sending a shockwave into this race! Considering the level of dissatisfaction with the current field, a surprise victory here could start an avalanche of support from the establishment for G.H. to run.........

I'd imagine our Army in Iowa is still ready, willing and able to mount a significant write-in campaign.

I know I would certainly donate $$$ for this.

Any thoughts?


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:12 am 
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From my other post:

"This past Saturday, the official Ames Straw Poll ballot was set, and it included several surprises as far as who was not included. The ballot will be (in alphabetical order):

•Michele Bachmann
•Herman Cain
•Newt Gingrich
•Jon Huntsman
•Thad McCotter
•Ron Paul
•Tim Pawlenty
•Mitt Romney
•Rick Santorum

...But the bigger news that everyone was waiting on was the exclusion of Rick Perry and Sarah Palin from the ballot. As it turns out, the committee voting on the ballot was split down the middle as to whether or not to include Perry and Palin; it came down to a 5-5 vote. The tie was broken by Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn, who made the decision not to include the two potential candidates.

The compromise that the Iowa GOP worked out was interesting, though. For the first time ever (to the best of my knowledge), the straw poll ballot include a spot for write-in votes. Prior to this year, write-in votes were not allowed at Ames and were discarded. Now, however, Perry and Palin fans can go to the poll and write in their preferred candidate. It remains to be seen how big of an impact any write in votes will have, but my guess is not very much. Of course, Strawn indicated in that he has already heard from people who said they will travel to Ames to write in Mike Huckabee’s name.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:12 am 
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And another:

What?! This is our chance! In 2007 there were 14,302 voters at Ames. GMH recieved 2587 votes, good enough for 2nd. This year Romney is not in Iowa for this poll so his numbers will great decrease. Palin and Perry aren't selections either although they could be written in just like GMH. The big difference is that Perry and Palin didn't run in 2007. They have no Iowa people. And neither of them are announcing before Ames. Mike would be the only guy receiving much attention in the write in votes.

2007 was the 2nd highest vote turnout at Ames ever. We can probably take away at least 3000 votes from that total. Mitt's people wont be there and there are alot of people who don't like any of the candidates. Lets say then that there are 11,000 votes total.

Everyone expects Bachmann and Paul to finish in the top 3. TPAW could be in that mix and so could Cain...but Cain supporters would flock back to Huckabee if there was a write-in campaign for Huck. Romney will still get some support, but not top 5. Santorum will also get some evangelical support.

So lets say that Bachmann, Paul, and TPAW finish 1-3 in that order. There is a good chance they take 70% of the vote between the 3 of them (based on 2007 polling). This leaves only 30% for the other 5 candidates plus write ins. If GMH could somehow capture about 8-10% of the total, it would be a sure fire 4th place in a poll he wasnt listed on for a race he isnt running in! That means if he can get about 900 votes he'd take 4th. If TPAW really is doing as poorly as some say, GMH might take 3rd with 10-12% of the vote.

So what happens now? Where do we go from here? Can a ground effort be formed for a write-in campaign in less than 3 weeks? Can someone explain how the Ames voting even works (who gets to vote?).

Lets do this!


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:17 am 
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OK, something new....I am glad that we got a post started for this topic alone. Since the middle of May when GMH said he wasnt running, I have seen disappointment, frustration, and sadness on this site. I have also seen joy anytime some small little detail came along hinting that maybe Mike would change his mind.

Well why don't we stop wishing that he changes his mind and do something to change it? If Mike beat any of the Iowa big three (Paul, Bachmann, TPAW) then he would get tons of press and would overshadow the winner (like he did in 2007) because a write in candidate shouldn't finish above anyone other than maybe Fred Karger (actually I don't think he is on the ballot). But there is still enough grand troops in Iowa that could get this thing done. We need to get this word out!

Who is in Iowa? Who can help get the word out? This is our chance....probably our one and only shot to actually push Mike into the spotlight. What he does from there is anyone's guess, but even the establishment will have to take a close look at things if a candidate who has said he isn't running ends up beating the likes of a guy who has been running for 2 years (TPAW).


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:39 am 
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Someone noted on another thread that an actual write in campaign that fizzles might be worse, and it might be better to just see how many write in Huckabee without the campaign.

I agree though about the potential. And Iowans here have been saying that many Huck supporters still don't know who to throw their support behind.

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THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:47 am 
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Miserere wrote:
Someone noted on another thread that an actual write in campaign that fizzles might be worse, and it might be better to just see how many write in Huckabee without the campaign.

That's ridiculous........


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:50 am 
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There is less than 3 weeks until Ames....no write in campaign would be expected to get more than 7th or 8th place if that. I don't think there would be time for it to "fizzle". Some people are going to vote for GMH either way so that is promising.....if we seriously could just get ahold of the supporters who helped in 2007-08 in Iowa and had each of them bring a few friends, GMH would easily hit 1,000 votes. That would be good enough for 4th, possibly even 3rd.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 9:52 am 
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Do they check to see if you're an Iowan at the poll? If not, I could take me a road trip.

_________________
THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 11:32 am 
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Yes, you have to be an Iowan.


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 12:22 pm 
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THIS IS A REPOST - from the Perry Palin thread. I'm reposting it because it doesn't appear to have been read and since this topic has now been started on its own, its more appropriate here, anyway.

There is nothing more we Huck fans in Iowa would love more than to have Mike win the Straw Poll on write-in votes. However, with just 3 weeks left, I can't see it happening.

Keep in mind that we are "grassroots". We aren't professional politicians who are on salary. Those of us who are the deepest involved are people just like you who have businesses to run, regular jobs to show up for in order to get paid, kids and grandkids to raise, families and aging parents to attend to, etc. Many of us have already sacrificed a great deal over the past several years helping get conservatives elected and in the hopes that Mike would run.

If you could find someone who has none of the above and all the free time in the world to spend on this 24/7, I'm still not sure that it could be done.

Other things to keep in mind. Only Iowans can vote. Each Iowan only has one vote. Many of Mike's people have gone on to work for, volunteer for, and support other candidates. If they vote for Mike (who isn't even running), they give up their vote for their current candidate, who then might get knocked out of any chance to go on because they didn't place in the Iowa Straw Poll. Unless you have a candidate paying for your way into the Straw Poll, it costs money, not to mention the time away from work and travel expenses to get there. Many across Iowa would go down to their local voting place to vote, but won't be willing to sacrifice the above to head to Ames.

None of the candidates are Mike - period. However, there are some that are better than others. Because most of the people who would vote for Mike are just naturally "smarter" :D , they are going to vote for those who are most similar to Mike. If they, in a sense, forfeit their vote for a write-in for Mike, then their candidate will be beaten by those who are not similar to Mike. Those not as desirable candidates go on, while the candidates most similar to Mike are determined to be "done". Is that what we want?

If we in Iowa thought for a moment that this was something Mike would want us to do, it would be a whole different ballgame. Unfortunately, it's not the case.

Wish I could offer more hope. :cry:


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 12:39 pm 
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All that being said....I think a WIN, PLACE or SHOW by G.H. (as a non-candidate...via write-in) would be unprecedented and historic....and could quite possibly change the whole race (maybe even promting him to jump in). Couldn't hurt to try.....


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 1:48 pm 
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What can we do to help?? Could someone maybe come up with a phone bank and we could make calls from other states. I have unlimited long distance and, though I work 60 hrs. a week I would be more than willing to make calls. Would anyone have an Iowa contact who could come up with the phone bank list?


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 8:05 pm 
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Ask Randy Davis...he lives in IA and would probably know people for us to contact.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:09 am 
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As much as I would love to give Gov. Huckabee a vote of support and encouragement, I think that a campaign effort for him to win the Iowa Straw Poll would be an unwelcomed victory for him since his daughter, Sarah is working hard for Tim Pawlenty to win the straw poll as well as the Presidency. I realize I can't speak for him, but I'm just speaking from a parent's perspective.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 1:38 am 
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The idea would be to find Huckabee supporters that have not committed to anyone else to do this, not steal other candidates' supporters. Pawlenty will do what he does - or does not. If he falls short, the fault is ultimately his, not Huckabee's or Sarah's. And all of them are experienced enough to know that.

P.S. I don't know if anyone has already contacted Randy Davis, but I went ahead & emailed him just in case. Hopefully we'll have an idea of the feasibility of this soon.


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 9:18 am 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
The idea would be to find Huckabee supporters that have not committed to anyone else to do this, not steal other candidates' supporters. Pawlenty will do what he does - or does not. If he falls short, the fault is ultimately his, not Huckabee's or Sarah's. And all of them are experienced enough to know that.

P.S. I don't know if anyone has already contacted Randy Davis, but I went ahead & emailed him just in case. Hopefully we'll have an idea of the feasibility of this soon.


Thanks QVA. Everyone needs to realize that TPAW is not taking a top 2 spot....and he needs a top 2 spot to really stay in this thing as his polling has just been terrible! Sarah jumped in on a sinking ship and that is too bad for her. At least she will have a good idea of what is going on in Iowa so that in September, when GMH gets in, she can keep things rolling :) Seriously though, I read so many posts about people wanting to recruit Huck and prayed that he would change his mind...but then when there is a legit opportunity, there are like 4 people talking about it. I wish I were in Iowa.



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 9:55 am 
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karrboy84 wrote:
Seriously though, I read so many posts about people wanting to recruit Huck and prayed that he would change his mind...but then when there is a legit opportunity, there are like 4 people talking about it. I wish I were in Iowa.

Well said......



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 1:30 pm 
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Wouldn't take much to print up and distribute a few thousand fliers along the lines of:

Not Happy with the CURRENT field of candidates?
WRITE-IN Governor Mike Huckabee for PRESIDENT!
Your vote WILL count in the 2011 Straw Poll.

Plant the idea in the heads of straw poll atendees and then whatever hapens....happens!


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 2:08 pm 
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steves wrote:
Wouldn't take much to print up and distribute a few thousand fliers along the lines of:

Not Happy with the CURRENT field of candidates?
WRITE-IN Governor Mike Huckabee for PRESIDENT!
Your vote WILL count in the 2011 Straw Poll.

Plant the idea in the heads of straw poll atendees and then whatever hapens....happens!


Thats what im talking about!!! I am happy to donate if someone wants to take on this task. Door to door flyers could work. The phone bank idea is a great one too. It would make the most sense to get these out next weekend because its far enough away that people can make plans to vote but close enough that people don't forget. Should mention that it costs $30. The real Huckabee supporters would have no issue skipping a meal out to vote for Huck. Let me know if someone runs with this and I will paypal a donation!


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PostPosted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 2:37 pm 
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I'd be willing to donate too :) I'm not allowed to donate to presidential campaigns so this might be the closest I'll ever get :)


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