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PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 3:37 pm 
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GOP Primary: Perry 29%, Romney 18%, Bachmann 13%

Texas Governor Rick Perry, the new face in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, has jumped to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann with the other announced candidates trailing even further behind.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... achmann_13

Quote:
The problem (OK... there's more than one problem with this scenario) with this dream/nightmare is that the following must play out in the next eight weeks maximum:

1.) Perry surges. Leads the field and Romney by more than 10 pts showing Mitt's chronic weakness remains.

2.) Perry implodes. Opp Research and/or bad campaigning bust the bubble of Perry's surge and he is awarded the Fred Thompson Award for 2011.

3.) Bachmann surges. Bachmann moves into the lead over Romney further showing Mitt's chronic weakness.

4.) Bachmann proves resilient to attacks that would take the legs out from under a more conventional candidate as occured with other "tea party" favorites (especially those who lost in the general) in the 2010 cycle.

5.) Old gaurd knows only Huckabee can stop Bachmann who they hate more than the the prospect of Mike's own success.

6.) Huck enters citing National events (like unemployment going up further; GDP going negative) involving the economy and jobs as the reason.

7.) Happy Halloween!


Check!

:D :pray

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PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 4:25 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:
GOP Primary: Perry 29%, Romney 18%, Bachmann 13%

Texas Governor Rick Perry, the new face in the race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination, has jumped to a double-digit lead over Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann with the other announced candidates trailing even further behind.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... achmann_13

Quote:
The problem (OK... there's more than one problem with this scenario) with this dream/nightmare is that the following must play out in the next eight weeks maximum:

1.) Perry surges. Leads the field and Romney by more than 10 pts showing Mitt's chronic weakness remains.

2.) Perry implodes. Opp Research and/or bad campaigning bust the bubble of Perry's surge and he is awarded the Fred Thompson Award for 2011.

3.) Bachmann surges. Bachmann moves into the lead over Romney further showing Mitt's chronic weakness.

4.) Bachmann proves resilient to attacks that would take the legs out from under a more conventional candidate as occured with other "tea party" favorites (especially those who lost in the general) in the 2010 cycle.

5.) Old gaurd knows only Huckabee can stop Bachmann who they hate more than the the prospect of Mike's own success.

6.) Huck enters citing National events (like unemployment going up further; GDP going negative) involving the economy and jobs as the reason.

7.) Happy Halloween!


Check!

:D :pray


FROM YOUR LIPS TO GOD'S EARS!

The only problem I see with this is that I think Bachmann has reached her peak and will now decline. This may enter an opportunity for a Palin run but I just don't think she is going to do it.

Do you know I can't even go on vacation without people talking about Huckabee? I was in the pool with complete strangers who weren't from Iowa and they were talking pro-Huckabee!

Run Huck!

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Post by Iowans Rock has received Likes: 4 janelles, justgrace, mxnwilson, QuoVadisAnima
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 6:15 pm 
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The only problem I see with this is that I think Bachmann has reached her peak and will now decline.


True. Which is why when she surges past Romney after Perry's Campaign is mortally wounded her strength will show without question just how weak Romney is and how hopeless the then current feild of candidates.

And here' my reaction if that actually happens:

:shock: :shock: :D :shock: :shock: :shock: :D :D :D

:floor

:shock: :shock:

:pray in thankfulness

It's kindof the reverse of the stages of grief.

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Oliver Wendell Holmes


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 7:45 pm 
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The ONLY reason for Perry's high numbers is he is the alternative to Romney that everyone has been praying for and they don't know a thing about him except that he is not Romney. Wait til his "warts" are exposed and watch how quickly he plummets in those polls. Remember, Donald Trump was at the top of thos polls not so long ago.


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:02 pm 
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If Michelle Bachmann surges, I will announce my candidacy for POTUS!! :floor


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:16 pm 
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mxnwilson wrote:
If Michelle Bachmann surges, I will announce my candidacy for POTUS!! :floor


To whom do I write the check?

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 12:16 am 
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Just make it out to Huck Pac since I'm sure Huck will endorse me. :D



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 12:38 pm 
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Looks like the Bushies are still going to go through a couple more rounds of "maybe this guy!" before they're ready to take a second look at Huck.

Paul Ryan is the man of the hour:

Quote:
Indiana governor Mitch Daniels hopes he runs. “If there were a Paul Ryan fan club, I'd be a national officer,” Daniels said in a phone interview Wednesday morning.

...

Another prominent conservative reformer, Jeb Bush, also thinks Ryan should run.
“Paul Ryan would be a formidable candidate. I admire his substance and energy. Win or lose, he would force the race to be about sustained, job-creating economic growth and the real policies that can achieve it.”

Ryan has been receiving encouragement from his colleagues in the House for months. California congressman Devin Nunes, who has worked extensively with Ryan on entitlement reform and spending issues, has been pushing Ryan for months. So has John Boehner, according to two sources familiar with their conversations. Boehner has praised Ryan as a “natural candidate” to fellow House Republicans.

Ohio congressman Jim Jordan, a leading conservative in the House and head of the Republican Study Committee, is also bullish on a possible Ryan bid. “He'd certainly be an asset to the race. When Paul talks about Cut, Cap, and Balance as a key to solving America's debt problem, people get it.”


When Ryan either decides to get in or gets in, surges, and then fizzles, the Bushies will move on to the next flavor of the month. The sooner they run out of seemingly viable alternatives the better. And I agree, Bachmann and Perry doing well will only make them more desperate to find somebody else.

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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 1:23 pm 
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You know, if Paul Ryan does get in, I'll most likely support him. Of course I'll always hope for Huckabee, but Ryan is good enough as a placeholder.



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 1:40 pm 
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Wouldn't this be the strangest thing that all along Huck really was right on this whole thing.....he did not have peace at the time......everything collapses like u say and then folks will cry out for Huck to re-enter the race. I predicted this to happen the day he announced he was not going to run...of course I was hoping this would be the case. Huckabee Rubio 2012 or maybe Huckabee Bachmann



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 1:56 pm 
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Wendero wrote:
You know, if Paul Ryan does get in, I'll most likely support him. Of course I'll always hope for Huckabee, but Ryan is good enough as a placeholder.


Agreed. I trust Ryan just like I trust Huckabee. My impression of Ryan is that he's someone who's as sharp as anyone in DC, and at the same time he's a family man who wants to do good for the country rather than his career.

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The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:07 pm 
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First off, this poll is good, but only for the time being. If we want a scenario where Huck gets back in, it isnt with Perry at 40% and no one withing 30 pts of him, which would be the current trend. What we want is for Mitt's numbers to be low like this, and then as things come out about Perry that people dont like (which has happened with trump, cain, bachmann, newt, etc), then his numbers start to drop. In jumps Christie and Ryan. The vote splits further and Palin sees her chance to jump in, hoping that her cronies can get her to double digits right away. Palin joining means so does Rudy. I posted over at R42012 that things could look like this:

Rudy 12% (name recognition wins out)
Romney 11%
Christie 11%
Perry 10%
Palin 10%
Paul 9% (his floor and ceiling are about 3 pts away from each other!)
Ryan 7%
Bachmann 6%
Newt 3%
Santorum 2%
Cain 2%
Huntsman 2%
Other/undecided 15%…..with so many candidates how can people really pick?

You would think by that point the bottom 4 would drop out, but their votes would probably go mostly into the "other/undecided" camp as most votes do as soon as someone has dropped out and their supports are unsure of their #2. So huck could then enter the race with 1/4 of the votes undecided. He has the religious aspect that Santorum and Perry have, he has the strong socon values that Palin, paul, perry, bachmann, and santorum all have, he has the southern roots that newt and perry have, he has the executive experience that romney, perry, huntsman, Palin, and christie have, he has the down to earth and very likeable personality that bachmann and christie have, he has the wisdom on financial policies (see fair tax) that cain and ryan have...I mean, he would easily pull from every candidate. I think within 2 weeks of votes he would be at the top. I dont think it would be long before bachmann dropped out because she cant compete with perry, plain, and huck. Not sure who she endorses but she has gone head to head with saracuda so Huck might be in luck. Surely cain voters would jump to Huck right away.

I think the end result would be that Rudy and Romney would continually fight over the moderate vote and Perry and Huck would end up battling over everyone else. Christie and Paul would back out and support huck (why would they support anyone else? If they wanted to they could do that right now!)

So, there is my pipe dream. :pray


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:20 pm 
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Miserere wrote:
Wendero wrote:
You know, if Paul Ryan does get in, I'll most likely support him. Of course I'll always hope for Huckabee, but Ryan is good enough as a placeholder.


Agreed. I trust Ryan just like I trust Huckabee. My impression of Ryan is that he's someone who's as sharp as anyone in DC, and at the same time he's a family man who wants to do good for the country rather than his career.


Ryan is a great VP candidate. I could even see him staying in congress for a few terms, then running as governor of wisconsin, and then for president down the road. The guy lines up with almost all of my stances on issues. But he is 41 years old. He is not ready to be president. I think we need someone with experience as a governor. I know that immediately eliminates the likes of bachmann, santorum, cain, and others that seem qualified. But the US needs someone who knows how to run a large corporation. I will be continuing to cheer along a Huckabee re-emergence. If we get down to 3 or 4 candidates by January and Huck isnt one of them, I'll go from there.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:35 pm 
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If there is anyone who will surge in the polls, it won't be Bachmann, but rather Rick santorium as he will most likely get the votes of the Pawlenty supporters. I say he will win the Iowa Caucus as many Iowans were angered on sunday night by Bachmann's actions at the dinner in which she attended with her celebrity approach to this event. That's not to mention the so called gaffes she has made since them. So, Santorium will get a bounce from this win,-- not sure about New Hampshire, but South Carolina will certainly be giving him a look. If he wins the nomination, it's very possible he will choose Huck as vp. Then in 2020, he will be the GOP nominee and choose Tpaw for vp. Maybe a little unrealistic, but no more than the others. :wink: :idea:


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 2:43 pm 
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mxnwilson wrote:
If there is anyone who will surge in the polls, it won't be Bachmann, but rather Rick santorium as he will most likely get the votes of the Pawlenty supporters. I say he will win the Iowa Caucus as many Iowans were angered on sunday night by Bachmann's actions at the dinner in which she attended with her celebrity approach to this event. That's not to mention the so called gaffes she has made since them. So, Santorium will get a bounce from this win,-- not sure about New Hampshire, but South Carolina will certainly be giving him a look. If he wins the nomination, it's very possible he will choose Huck as vp. Then in 2020, he will be the GOP nominee and choose Tpaw for vp. Maybe a little unrealistic, but no more than the others. :wink: :idea:


WHAT?!?! Sorry, but i think rick santorum winning the nomination is much further out there than Huckabee getting back in. Santorum is a great candidate and Id vote for him, but no chance he beats Obama heads up....and only a slightly greater chance he could win the nomination.


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:10 pm 
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KarrBoy--Yeah, maybe so. That was my reason for the little wink, but I do think Santorium will pick up a little momentum in Iowa. Honestly, I have no idea who the nominee will be. Maybe I will watch the next debate, and whoever says, "I love the Huck," I will probably give them another look! :?:


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PostPosted: Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:52 pm 
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Well, Christie's probably out before he could really think too hard about getting in after today's news:

Quote:
New Jersey just got its credit rating downgraded by Fitch from AA to AA-.

It might not be a big deal, and it might not be his fault, but this should probably kill any buzz about him running for President right now, given that THE DOWNGRADE is expected to be such a salient point of attack for any eventual GOP nominee.


http://www.businessinsider.com/new-jers ... tie-2011-8

I think implicit in #5 on SD's list is that candidates who might be more palatable to the Bush crowd continue to either choose to stay out (i.e. Daniels, Pence, etc.) or get in, fizzle, and then drop out (i.e. Pawlenty).

Christie will likely take the Daniels/Pence approach, we'll see which approach Ryan will decide to take. If he does get in he'll appear infinitely more capable than some of the other candidates, and he'll raise the quality of the discussion quite a bit, but in the end he's still lacking the executive experience we really need in a presidential candidate and, more importantly, in a President.

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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:53 am 
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So, is Reuters right? Is this a mis-step by Perry that will turn off independents or is Reuters just covering O's flank?
Quote:
White House denounces Perry as Republicans target Fed


Tue Aug 16, 2011 7:48pm EDT

* Perry threatens Fed chairman, Bachmann also criticizes

* Remarks reflect intense political pressure on Fed

* White House says threatening Bernanke "not a good idea" (Adds fresh quotes from Bachmann, Obama, economist)

By Patricia Zengerle

WASHINGTON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - The White House denounced Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry on Tuesday for his threatening remarks toward the head of the U.S. Federal Reserve that represented some of the most inflammatory rhetoric of the 2012 election campaign.

Campaigning in Iowa on Monday, the Texas governor said he would consider it "treasonous" if Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke "prints more money between now and the election" in November 2012 -- a fresh sign of the political heat the central bank faces as it tries to right the stumbling U.S. economy.

"If this guy prints more money between now and the election, I don't know what y'all will do to him in Iowa, but we would treat him pretty ugly down in Texas," Perry said to laughter from supporters in Iowa.

"Printing more money to play politics at this particular time in American history is almost treacherous, treasonous in my opinion," he said.

The White House responded by saying it is important for the Fed to remain independent, and jabbed back at Perry, who on Saturday entered the race for the Republican nomination to face Democratic President Barack Obama. Perry is already considered one of the strongest candidates for the Republican nomination.

"I certainly think threatening the Fed chairman is not a good idea," White House spokesman Jay Carney said.

"When you are president or running for president, you have to think about your words," Carney said in Iowa, where Obama was on a campaign-style bus tour. [ID:nN1E77F12Y]

Perry, who succeeded former President George W. Bush as Texas governor, is known for strongly conservative social and fiscal views. In his first three days as a candidate, he has upset Democrats by questioning Obama's patriotism and implying the U.S. military does not respect Obama as commander-in-chief. His remarks on Bernanke caused the biggest flap.

Another top-tier Republican presidential candidate, U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann, also criticized the Fed. "The Federal Reserve is not subject to transparency. The Federal Reserve has made terrible, grievous errors," Bachmann told reporters in South Carolina on Tuesday. [ID:nN1E77F1HB]

U.S. Representative Ron Paul, another Republican presidential candidate, also is a fierce critic of the Fed.

Bernanke was appointed in 2006 by Bush, a Republican, and reappointed by Obama. Under Bernanke, the Fed has embarked on one of the most extended periods of cheap money in U.S. history, keeping U.S. interest rates near zero since late 2008 and pledging to do so until mid-2013.

TARGETING THE FED

Perry, a favorite of the conservative Tea Party movement, may have been trying to tap into the anti-Fed sentiment of some of the most right-leaning Republican voters, who deeply distrust the unelected, but powerful, officials of the central bank.

The Fed has faced fire in Congress over its emergency financial rescues and regulatory lapses. Defenders argue the central bank was right to act aggressively to stem the crisis, and they credit it with preventing a financial collapse.

In fact, some argue that with no appetite among politicians for more fiscal stimulus, Fed action could be the only avenue left for Washington to support the U.S. economic recovery.

While investors chalked up Perry's comments to the campaign season, they said criticism of the Fed and threats to its political independence could multiply if the economy sours even more and the central bank takes further action to spur growth.

"Make no mistake, inflammatory comments like these are indicative of one thing -- an election cycle," said Keith Wirtz, the chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management, with $18 billion in assets.

Financial markets increasingly expect the Fed to launch a third round of bond buying to provide liquidity if the economy continues to weaken.

"If correct, the noise will explode," Wirtz said.

The Fed has already conducted two such programs, known as quantitative easing, since the financial crisis. Critics say that such programs are equivalent to the Fed running the printing presses faster and can lead to a long-term reduction in the value of the dollar.

'NOT THE ANSWER'

Perry's campaign did not back away from his comments. Campaign spokesman Mark Miner said the Texas governor was expressing frustration with the economic situation and "out of control spending" in Washington.

"Most Americans would agree that printing and spending more money is not the answer to the economic issues facing the country," Miner said.

But his tone could turn off independent voters whose support will be needed to defeat Obama in the 2012 general election.

"When you say those things in the Lone Star State (Texas), you look colorful. When you say these things on a national stage ... it's going to come back and get you," said Ford O'Connell, an advisor on Republican John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign.

"You've got to be more like James Bond and less like Rambo," he said.

Democrats have seized on the latest remarks by Perry, who caused a stir in 2009 when he said Texas might need to secede from the United States, to make their case that he is a loose-talking cowboy likely to act too hastily under pressure if he were to win the White House.

At a campaign event on Monday, Perry was asked if Obama loved the country, and replied, "You need to ask him."

Asked whether Perry's remarks were disrespectful, Obama said he would "cut him some slack" as a new candidate.

"Everybody who runs for president, it probably takes them a little bit of time before they start realizing that this isn't like running for governor or running for senator or running for Congress, and you've got to be a little more careful about what you say," Obama said on CNN's "The Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer." (Additional reporting by Alister Bull in Dyersville, Iowa, Harriet McLeod in Spartanburg, South Carolina, and Jennifer Ablan, Richard Leong and Steven C. Johnson in New York; Editing by Will Dunham)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/ ... 0V20110816


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:11 am 
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Perry surging to a double-digit lead after just getting in shows you just how weak this field is. All people know about Perry is that he's been a good Governor on Texas (or at least that is what is being portrayed) and most importantly, he's someone DIFFERENT.

I was listening to a few minutes of Local Talk Radio, and it was clear to me that some are trying to talk themselves into Perry. They've been looking for an alternative, and they hope Perry is it. It won't take long before they start to figure out he is not. Then we'll be right back where we were.

Paul Ryan is a great guy, and he's great to have working on these fiscal policy issues in Congress, but he's not a Presidential Candidate. He's too technical. He's not able to get out of the weeds and communicate in plain terms that inspire.


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PostPosted: Thu Aug 18, 2011 4:31 am 
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I've got to post a few more things about Perry. I am constantly trying to do an inward check to make sure my strong feelings aren't coming from a bias or something else, but I just can't shake how strongly I feel that Perry may be one of the fakest candidates we've had run for office.

At least Romney has some substance. Granted that substance is all Wall Street Big Business Establishment Republican substance, but he is what he is. I have no idea what Perry is. I remember thinking in the primary season of 1999 that it was a tragedy that our frontrunner at that time was a Governor that had been groomed by his family and had no business being near the White House. I feel even stronger about Perry.

We've got to have someone else enter this field, but besides Huckabee I don't see anyone that I could support, is ready, and that could win. If Rubio had some experience under his belt then this would have been the perfect time for him to run, but it's just too early for him.

I don't like to judge, and especially of someone who identifies them-self as a Christian, but as I'll say again; I just can't shake the negative feelings I have about Perry.



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