(Full disclosure: my candidate in the race right now is Bachmann.)

Here's the way I see the race as of right now.

Most pundits will tell you that it's a 3-way race between Bachmann, Perry, and Romney. You're not going to get the conventional wisdom here. Rick Perry is the frontrunner, not Mitt Romney. All the new national polls show Perry leading the field despite having a lower name recognition than the other candidates.

This election is going to revolve around defeating Obama. Historically, the challenging party in a presidential election nominates someone who is the opposite of the president (or former president if it was the end of their 2nd term). This means that the GOP electorate is looking for someone who is the opposite of Barack Obama.

What have been the criticisms of Obama? He's inexperienced and incompetent has been the primary criticism along with being a radical socialist. Any Republican is going to oppose his socialism, so that's not going to be a deciding factor for picking a nominee. Experience is going to be very important.

Rick Perry's 10 years of experience as governor of Texas along with the economy in Texas will make him the favored candidate of those looking for the anti-Obama. But that's not what's going to decide the race, only influence it.

Ideologically, Perry is between Bachmann and Romney. If the race remains a 3-way race, any of the 3 can win it. If it turns into a 2-way race, then Perry wins by a wide margin.

The next several months are very important for Rick Perry. People are saying that he's too conservative and that he's saying crazy things that only right-wingers would say. They say it'll damage his chances of winning. They're wrong again. Right now, Perry needs to knock either Romney or Bachmann out of the race. Since Iowa is the state that votes first, the target needs to be Bachmann. He has to run to the right to take out Bachmann. Polls show that he has a big lead over Bachmann despite Bachmann just winning the straw poll in Iowa.

As the campaign wears on throughout the fall, Perry is going to be leading Bachmann in the polls unless Perry makes serious gaffes causing people to question his conservatism. If Perry’s ideology becomes questionable, then it’ll be a 3-way race and it’s anyone’s to win. If Perry is seen as a conservative candidate, then it’ll become clear to conservatives that Perry is the best chance to beat Romney and Perry will win Iowa. Right now, Perry is the frontrunner in Iowa.

Leading up to the Iowa vote, I expect Bachmann’s campaign to weaken and Perry’s to strengthen. Then, Perry will win Iowa. After this, support for Bachmann will collapse and Perry will surge. By this time, Perry will have a large lead in the polls over Romney, but things will be tighter in New Hampshire.

After Iowa, I can see the race going in one of two ways. Should Perry beat Romney in New Hampshire, then the race is over. Perry will win every single primary and caucus, and the party will unite behind him to beat Obama. Should Romney beat Perry in New Hampshire, then the race won’t be over. The next states are South Carolina and Nevada. Romney will win Nevada due to the Mormons, and Perry will cruise in SC. Perry will then take a commanding lead in the delegates after Super Tuesday, and Romney’s campaign will end after Super Tuesday, just like it ended after Super Tuesday in 2008.

So, I think Perry will be the nominee. The only thing that can derail that is if Perry sabotages his campaign by not being a conservative, which is certainly possible. If that happens, it’s a tossup.

As for the general election versus Obama, I believe that it won’t even be close. Perry will win in a landslide. The #1 issue will be the economy and jobs. People will contrast Obama’s record with Perry’s record. Plus, the economy will be even worse by next fall than it is now. Obama’s approval ratings will probably be in the 30’s by then.

I don't see Bachmann figuring into any equation. Maybe she wins Iowa. I don't see her winning anywhere else. I predict the real narrowing of the field to be in New Hampshire where Romney will have a tough battle. But I don't think his main rival there will be Perry.

Who knows if Perry is going anywhere? We haven't seen him on the debate stage, we haven't seen him get asked tough questions on the stump; his campaign might just be lousy or run poorly. I'd like to see where his poll numbers are in a month.

Even if Perry takes Iowa, does okay in NH, and prevails in SC, ...then Michigan, Nevada and Florida or even California can still go to Romney. Romney has the easiest path to the nomination because he can last the longest. Everyone knows about his healthcare problem, but nobody seem to mind ( at least in the polls).

Have I missed this? Has anyone asked Romney directly whether in his philosophy he believes it it the Government's place to mandate the purchase of an insurance contract? He seems to skate by with the State vs. Federal response. But I want a yes or no.

I think you're right about Bachmann and Iowa. My heart is with her, but my head thinks it just isn't going to happen. It's hard to see a path to the nomination for her. Even if she does win Iowa, how will she win South Carolina? Only happens if Perry drops out before SC votes. Before Perry joined the race, she had a decent shot at winning because Romney is such a deeply flawed candidate. Perry has to disappear for Bachmann to win.

One of the headlines in early February after the Iowa vote is going to be, "What happened to the Bachmann campaign? Where did it go wrong?"

This is just a guess, but I think the Iowa vote will go down with Perry winning, Romney 2nd, Paul 3rd, Bachmann 4th, Santorum 5th.

Bachmann will be out after that and so will Herman Cain and Rick Santorum. Essentially it'll be Romney vs. Perry after Iowa. Perry will be leading in the polls nationally at that point. Even if Romney does win New Hampshire, it won't matter. Romney won't win South Carolina nor Florida. The winner in South Carolina consistently wins the nomination.

Romney's money isn't going to be all that important. Money just gets your name and message out there. Everyone knows who Romney is at this point, so his money does him no good. He'll hang around with his 15-30%, but he represents a minority of the GOP. If the conservatives unite around a candidate, then Romney is finished. It's the only way a moderate wins in the GOP. McCain did it in 2008 because conservatives were split between Huckabee, Thompson, and Romney (who was pretending to be a conservative).

I still insist that Huckabee would have been the nominee had Thompson not been in the race in 2008. He would have won South Carolina and parlayed that win into more wins on Super Tuesday. Unfortunately, he would have lost to Obama, as no candidate could have won in that environment.

I have real issues with Perry, he is not authentic in any way to me. He attended the annual bilderburg meeting this year and now all of a sudden he is the front runner. He sold Texas roads to a Mexican company. He was all for the trans-corridor. Then there is the anti TSA Bill in texas that would of passed but he killed it.

I think this guy is a wolf in sheeps clothing, I was hoping the people in Iowa would of seen through him.

Well, according to my understanding of the primary calendar, Romney does well in Iowa (2/6), wins NH (2/14), wins Nevada Caucus (2/18), and has a nice head of steam going into SC (2/28). He does have the 'next in line' status. As we've seen before, even coming in 4th in SC will not make Romney drop out. Soon after is FL (where Romney still has a huge lead in the latest primary polling, even with Perry's entry announcement bump) and Super Tuesday. There's still a lot of states out there: blue states and western states where Romney can eke out delegates.

On the other hand, anything could happen: Palin and Giuliani could get in. Huckabee could get in.

I just got a crazy notion: maybe Mike Huckabee would prefer Romney get the nomination rather than Perry. My reasoning is not clear yet...but it's something to think about.

Where are we headed? I seem to ask myself that every day. I truly believe that Obama will lose in 2012. The burning question of course is WHO will he lose to.

I TRULY believe that Palin is going to announce she is running on September 3rd. I would almost guarantee she says something on way or another by then, but i think she runs. If so then Rudy runs and we have our moderate candidate to steal votes from Romney. The problem of beating Romney is that we can throw anyone we want into the mix, but they arent going to drop Romney's floor unless they take votes driectly from him. So if Rudy or Pataki were to run, Romney would be hurting. Maybe Huntsman can pick up steam, but I doubt it.

I think Perry gets vetted over the next 6 weeks and looks like a loser in debates. I can see Ron Paul DESTROYING him with some underhanded comments...heck, Santorum will probably even take some shots. They both have nothing to lose. Mitt will continue to be patient. He has no need to fight off challengers because they are all intent on killing each other off first so they can go heads up with mittens.

So by the middle of October i think things are all jumbled and Huck takes a shot at it.

I keep seeing Rudy's name popping up (not just on this site). Has he hinted at jumping in the race?

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Since April he's been rumored.....and he said that if Palin runs so would he. Within the last week one of his aides said he is still seriously considering a run.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... l_bid.html

Guiliani wins in NY pretty handily if he gets in which would hurt Romney who is counting on NY and their delegates. Guiliani could also hurt Romney in Florida.

With Perry being a member of the Bilderberg group who believes in a one world order, how will this fare with the voting public.

As far as Romney....the other candidates need to pour money into the state primaries to let everybody know about Romney's Romneycare. That would hurt him the most. The Establishment is satisfied to let Romney win knowing that we cannot go after Obama on Obamacare in the General. That means we would have Obamacare and all it's economy money sucking that goes with it if Obama wins. All the elites care about is the money each candidate has.....that's why they would never support Huckabee.

Give it some time.......but the problem is that the alternative seen right now to Perry is still Bachmann who has no experience whatsoever and people want Obama gone. So, people will still most likely chose Perry over her. There needs to be someone else to rise up in Iowa or SOMEONE ELSE ENTER THE RACE to change the state from going to Perry.

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"We fought, we dreamed, that dream is still with us."
Ronald Reagan, 1976

TEAM HUCK IOWA
http://www.facebook.com/TeamHuckIowa

People know Mitt Romney and they don't like him fso Perry is winning at thie point because he is NOT Romney. Most people know little to nothing about him other than he is the other choice. Most feel Bachmann cannot win a general election so, at this point, it is a 2man race. In time, people will come to know more about Perry and he may actually fall some but, IMO he will beat Romney. Now will he beat Obama???

I am hoping that Perry will bomb in the debates. I've watched him debate in TX & he isn't good. He avoids them when possible. So I'm hoping that he hasn't learned how to do better.

Can he beat Obama? With the good ole' boy network deeply entrenched in TX, he's been able to deflect the problems with his record over the years. It didn't hurt that TX doesn't seem to get good candidates to run. Obama has spent a lot of money building up the Democrat party here & I see the effect it is having. But Perry hasn't played in the national arena & Obama will stop at nothing to win. My fear is the GOP forces Perry down our throats & then Obama is able to drag out the skeletons in Perry's closet & use them to beat Perry.

I am paying close attention to down ballot races to see how to help take the House & Senate no matter what. Then, if that worst case scenario comes true, we may be able to stop most of Obama's agenda through Conress & maybe even impeach Obama.

It is interesting that those of you from Texas do not have nearly so much good to say about your Governor as some national Republicans. Thank y'all for sharing some of your concerns. We definitely need to know the facts, now, before he is the nominee.

When we have visited in Texas during winter volunteer work, I just have not had the best impression of your governor. I had a very negative view, though, years back, because of how he wanted the super-highway running from the Mexico to Canada, which would take some of our land in Kansas. Also, I cannot imagine the security problems if we cannot protect the border. And, is it just my imagination, but there must be thousands of illegals here with the south Texas towns. There seems to be very loose border security. There have been several stolen pick-ups from the mission where we work. In one instance, the police said they knew where the truck was but weren't about to help recover it. The daughter of a drug lord in Mexico was driving it.

Maybe Governor Perry should correct some of these problems before running for President. How much of the state's business success is his, and at what cost? Also, how is he addressing the serious drought that will probably not be over soon? These questions are more important to me--the border security, illegal immigration, and the serious drought that will affect agriculture and your life. I am sure he must be addressing this. Right?

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I agree that if Perry is Perry, then he'll bomb in the debate and that'll deflate to some extent the Perry bubble. But, if Perry has become more disciplined and sharper now that he's on the national stage, then I'll start trying to come to terms with his nomination.

Re. the border, there isn't really very much a state can do. The border is a national border and beyond our jurisdiction. Perry tried to give the president a letter about the border situation a few months ago, and the president directed him to hand the letter to one of his aides. Does this count as doing something?

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THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.

Perry ran on getting tough on illegals but never did. He loves to get in front of the camera & bluster but never really do anything. He is like politicians from both sides - he wants their votes. So he sends letters to Obama telling him to do something or he tells them he wants reimbursement for the costs we have to bear (all usually before an election). Meanwhile, we are being over-run & the situation is getting more dangerous. And he does things that don't help such as speaking at La Raza promoting working with them, pushing & signing legislation to give in-state tuition to illegals, telling everyone AZ's tough laws aren't right for TX & building a fence is nonsense, giving speeches where he promotes a totally open border, pushing the TTC to make it easier to get drugs through here, not really pushing the sanctuary city law when he had a super majority legislature & the will of the people backing it, etc. I have friends who couldn't get jobs because illegals are preferred.

I know it is the federal govt's responsibility first. But there are things he can do but doesn't & things he should never do but does. It is unbelievable that he is silent when we have an officer in Houston killed by an illegal due to sanctuary city policies (some believe). I still do not trust that the TTC is dead. He snuck it back in under a different name at least once. As for the drought, it is going to hurt TX economy soon with massive losses. We've driven across the state recently & it is heart-breaking to see the devastation. He has asked for federal help but Obama turned TX down for help over the wildfires & has waged war on TX through the EPA on several fronts so I wouldn't hold my breath for help. Other than that, I haven't heard that he is doing anything. We've been waiting 10-12 years for him to fix these problems - I don't expect him to change now. (Unless he really sees a way for it to help him run for president.)

Thank you very much, miracleshappen. Your report is insightful and gives us instances of the failures and possible problems with a Perry nomination as Republican candidate.

I know some think we (or I) as conservatives are too tough on this good man, who sponsored a prayer meeting in Texas that was a genuine article. But we need to know the truth about potential candidates for President--who they are at the core, what promises they do or do not keep, or what they promise to the enemies of this country's freedoms, security, or constitutional law. This is often only found out when people like you from the state where a leader is located speak out and tell it like it is. Not like the candidate wants it to appear.

I have more respect for a person who has firm convictions, can give reasons for them, and does not live a duplicitous life for political gain. I should not judge Gov. Perry's intentions, but I think we can judge the fruit and effects of his policies. It is too serious a matter to leave to chance or to hopeful wishing that he will be different as President. (He would still be better than Obama, don't you think?)

Still looking for the candidate I am ready to endorse...

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Not sure how genuine Perry is.........a career polititian, he reaks of cronyism, the worst example being his endorsement of Rudy over G.H. in hopes of getting the VP nod.

Looking forward to seeing how he does in the debates. Beyond that, I just think it's downright silly to get angry at Perry over the TTC (conspiracy theorist garbage) or "crony capitalism" (could be leveled at any politician we don't like for pretty much anything). The only substantive critique against him I've seen is on illegal immigration, and that's particularly absurd coming from HA, since he advocated the same thing Huckabee did.

And let me just go on record saying that on the issue of illegal immigration, conservatives are wrong. Unlike liberals, I don't think there's a racist intent behind it, but all the same, I find the common position both philosophically, morally, and politically indefensible.

The good news for Perry supporters is that it won't matter, because at the end of the day, this is a jobs election. Yes, immigration has some impact on the jobs situation, but so does everything else in the world, and job creation is the issue. Perry has a long track record of proving to support policies that are conducive to private sector job creation. Romney has done the opposite. For that, if Perry doesn't implode, and for that alone, he will win the nomination and probably the presidency.

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To Give a Reason for the Hope - a practical, twelve week, online series to help Christians effectively defend and share their faith.

Jac--good comments on the immigration issue. This is something that is so complex and cannot be painted with a broad brush. Huck knew this when he was a Governor and he still gets it.