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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:36 pm 
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Well back on August 14, I tried to come up with ANY far fetched scheme that could play out with a Huckabee entry in the following eight weeks. Here is the needed modification at week six:

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The problem (OK... there's more than one problem with this scenario) with this dream/nightmare is that the following must play out in the next eight weeks maximum:

1.) Perry surges. Leads the field and Romney by more than 10 pts showing Mitt's chronic weakness remains.

Check!

2.) Perry implodes. Opp Research and/or bad campaigning bust the bubble of Perry's surge and he is awarded the Fred Thompson Award for 2011.

Check!

3.) Cain (formerly Bachmann six weeks ago) surges. Cain moves into the lead over Romney further showing Mitt's chronic weakness.

Check for Part One of the statement Modified!

4.) Cain proves resilient to attacks that would take the legs out from under a more conventional candidate as occured with other "tea party" favorites (especially those who lost in the general) in the 2010 cycle.


5.) Old gaurd knows only Huckabee can stop Cain which they hate more than the prospect of his own success.

6.) Huck enters citing National events (like unemployment going up further; GDP going negative) involving the economy and jobs as the reason.

7.) Happy Halloween!



Still need to draw to an inside straight. But it could happen :roll: :tinfoil

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:58 pm 
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SD,

If all of your points end up coming true, we are all going to drive to AR and take you out for a celebration dinner as you will be The Providential Man.

That will be one Huckuva dinner celebration.

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PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2011 11:02 pm 
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ConservTexan wrote:
SD,

If all of your points end up coming true, we are all going to drive to AR and take you out for a celebration dinner as you will be The Providential Man.

That will be one Huckuva dinner celebration.


I definitely want in on that celebration!



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:23 am 
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Southern Doc wrote:
Well back on August 14, I tried to come up with ANY far fetched scheme that could play out with a Huckabee entry in the following eight weeks. Here is the needed modification at week six:

Quote:
The problem (OK... there's more than one problem with this scenario) with this dream/nightmare is that the following must play out in the next eight weeks maximum:

1.) Perry surges. Leads the field and Romney by more than 10 pts showing Mitt's chronic weakness remains.

Check!

2.) Perry implodes. Opp Research and/or bad campaigning bust the bubble of Perry's surge and he is awarded the Fred Thompson Award for 2011.

Check!

3.) Cain (formerly Bachmann six weeks ago) surges. Cain moves into the lead over Romney further showing Mitt's chronic weakness.

Check for Part One of the statement Modified!

4.) Cain proves resilient to attacks that would take the legs out from under a more conventional candidate as occured with other "tea party" favorites (especially those who lost in the general) in the 2010 cycle.


5.) Old gaurd knows only Huckabee can stop Cain which they hate more than the prospect of his own success.

6.) Huck enters citing National events (like unemployment going up further; GDP going negative) involving the economy and jobs as the reason.

7.) Happy Halloween!



Still need to draw to an inside straight. But it could happen :roll: :tinfoil


Southern Doc, we are so glad to have our resident political prognosticator and seer, here!

I like your scenario. I am ready to come to Arkansas and celebrate as well. I'll bring the tea!

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:55 am 
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Devil's Advocate Question for Southern Doc:

Will the Old Guard try their "Get Cain Out" hand with a Huckabee reconsideration or will they go with Newt who is already in the race and is starting a surge of his own (which I think instead of eating Perry numbers, will eat at Romney's numbers) and will only gain more steam now with his 21st Century Contract (which is the boldest plan anyone has come up with in the field, while having a component for the American people to make further suggestions)?


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 1:50 pm 
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BDBopper wrote:
Devil's Advocate Question for Southern Doc:

Will the Old Guard try their "Get Cain Out" hand with a Huckabee reconsideration or will they go with Newt who is already in the race and is starting a surge of his own (which I think instead of eating Perry numbers, will eat at Romney's numbers) and will only gain more steam now with his 21st Century Contract (which is the boldest plan anyone has come up with in the field, while having a component for the American people to make further suggestions)?


Great Point. Not a clue. Truth is I still think the real reason the above will not happen is NOT because is couldn't but because, for whatever reasons, Mike Huckabee really does not want to run.

P.S. The devil has enough lawyers already :wink:

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Oliver Wendell Holmes


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:51 pm 
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Sure sounds like they're still hoping to pressure Christie - who will they turn to next? (We know who those guys will NOT turn to) :roll:


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:07 pm 
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Perry has now dropped down to 19.7 on intrade. He was in the high 30's before the last debate. I was wondering when he would hit below 20 again. Sure enough on the day that the idea of Mike Huckabee getting back into the race brings Perry's number below 20.

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PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:27 pm 
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ConservTexan wrote:
Perry has now dropped down to 19.7 on intrade. He was in the high 30's before the last debate. I was wondering when he would hit below 20 again. Sure enough on the day that the idea of Mike Huckabee getting back into the race brings Perry's number below 20.


Well Huck did rise 375% today.

Not a bad investment.

Of course that still puts him in 9th place with only a 1.8% chance.

But he did pass Newt, Santorum, and Johnson among others not running. :D

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 8:33 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:
3.) Cain (formerly Bachmann six weeks ago) surges. Cain moves into the lead over Romney further showing Mitt's chronic weakness.

Check for Part One of the statement Modified!


Looks like that is now a definite check!


Drudge is saying Cain catches Romney and links to the CBS poll:

Image

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162- ... 03544.html

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 9:20 pm 
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Hope continues.

I take from Huck's comments that point 5.) is happening but not enough to drive him to choose point 6.) {though the current economic swoon is well timed for a late October announcement to coinside with the new global bear markets and a return to recession in Europe}

Now that Christie is gone we are certainly running out of the sons of Jesse.

The GOP old gaurd is looking at a very stark reality:

Romney: whom they know has no real constituency or charisma but support in their own circle. A proven underperformer they must hope that the Southern evangelical base of the party will hold their noses and vote against Obama in places like North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida, and that the working poor in the mid-west will find Obama an even worse rally point then the guy who looks like the man who fired you. This is clearly the current default position of all the "smart money."

Cain: whom they may not even be able to stop if they try. He could be charismatic and ultimately a relatively good CEO type leader that they assume will be so unfamiliar with the levers of political power that they can still control them behind his back or coopt him as a "fellow businessman." OR they are going to freak out at his clear independence and fear the unpolished and ungaurded reality that he can say or do ANYTHING at ANY moment. This is NOT the kind of candidate the GOP embraces or elects.

Newt: whom they know to be egomaniacal but at least for some good reasons. Whether they could handle him fully inflated by a WhiteHouse run is another matter. They also know he stacks up very poorly against Obama and there are likely millions of GOP religious voters (and the all important swing vote of divorced/never married moderate women) who just will not vote for him due to the nature of his two divorces.

Soooo....you must choose!

They will pick the first and try to line everyone up around the "electable" Romney. But they know that is an unprovable and risky assumption.

The more it looks like Cain can take it from him or Romney is truly as weak as we all know him to be in the general election, the more they will cast around for some, ANY, other option. I still think they will go to the third tier of McDonnel or Thune before they go for Huck. But IF some rainmakers move enough toward Huck to test poll him he will register as a strong contender in both the primary and general.

Encouraging such test polling, and reminding folks or the polling that showed those realities for a year or more is what we need to do for the next two to three weeks.

IF the investor class really wants to win this round, they need an overperformer not an underperformer a has-been or an amateur.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes



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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 10:22 pm 
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Southern Doc, the investor class is who is behind Romney already. There was an article today that stated since Christy was out, the money people will pick Romney. One of them stated they were going to make calls all day tomorrow to line up all the support to make sure everybody will be pushing Romney. How much time do you think Huckabee has to make a decision. I don't think he should wait any longer than this weekend if he wants any of that money that is supposedly laying around. If somebody doesn't step forward and soon, they all will give to Romney which would leave Huckabee with not many choices for fundraising big money which he needs. I believe that's why Huckabee didn't want to run. It's hard on the campaign trail with everybody criticizing everything he ever did and not being able to get the money he needs to compete with Obama AND leave his Fox News show.

He hasn't been getting very good numbers for the age crowd that he needs, but he is the highest in the total number of viewers. I think Fox decides how successful the show is by that first number of viewers.

If Mike Huckabee EVER wants to run for President, now is the time to do it...2016 will be too late for him.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 10:40 pm 
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I agree that most of the money given by the investor class has gone to Romney thus far and is likely to start flowing more freely.

However they don't really have ANY reason to lock in their choice before the entry deadlines hit us at the end of this month. Romney might finally get trounced in the next debate as he will have to go toe to toe with Cain. Remember Cain is the fellow that came to national attention by exposing the hollowness of liberal health care assumptions through a Q and A format. Cain could just a s easily drop out for reasons of health at any moment (just saying- the man has only one third of his liver left) Perry may staunch the political bleeding and ride the anti-media smear backlash back into contention. Newt could end up the only skater on his feet behind a short track pile up of Romney-Cain-Perry.

I think much of the money is going to stand pat for the next three weeks to see if ANYONE else is out there and if any of the current field crashes in the meanwhile.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 10:52 pm 
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Southern Doc wrote:
IF some rainmakers move enough toward Huck to test poll him he will register as a strong contender in both the primary and general.

Encouraging such test polling, and reminding folks or the polling that showed those realities for a year or more is what we need to do for the next two to three weeks.



Dare I suggest we commission our own poll? Race42012 did it so I guess we could too.


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 11:55 pm 
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SouthernDoc, I just wanted to say again what a pure pleasure it is to read almost anything you write. You remind me of Mark Twain. Some day when we all gather in DC for Mike's inauguration, I want you to EmCee the big party. Later we'll gather around the bar in the hotel and you can regale us with tales until the sun comes up.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:08 am 
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FiscalConservative wrote:
Southern Doc wrote:
IF some rainmakers move enough toward Huck to test poll him he will register as a strong contender in both the primary and general.

Encouraging such test polling, and reminding folks or the polling that showed those realities for a year or more is what we need to do for the next two to three weeks.



Dare I suggest we commission our own poll? Race42012 did it so I guess we could too.


How much would something like that cost? Anyone know? Polling is an EXCELLENT idea, if we could just get it done. There's nothing the elite would respond to more than evidence that MH could win. (Of course, we know it already.)

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:01 am 
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This morning on Fox and Friends, they were interviewing Donald Trump. He said the field was all jumbled up when they considered Christy, now it has solidified behind Romney. He said the field is set which means he doesn't intend to give lots of money to Huckabee to run. I wonder if he offered with the caveat that he be VP and Huckabee said no. If that was the case, I would be proud of Huckabee for saying NO. It will take an absolute miracle for Huckabee to get in and get enough money to win, but miracles still do happen. I just don't know if Huckabee really wants to run as Southern Doc said.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:26 am 
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Vote For Truth wrote:
This morning on Fox and Friends, they were interviewing Donald Trump. He said the field was all jumbled up when they considered Christy, now it has solidified behind Romney. He said the field is set which means he doesn't intend to give lots of money to Huckabee to run. I wonder if he offered with the caveat that he be VP and Huckabee said no. If that was the case, I would be proud of Huckabee for saying NO. It will take an absolute miracle for Huckabee to get in and get enough money to win, but miracles still do happen. I just don't know if Huckabee really wants to run as Southern Doc said.


I think this is a major issue at hand. I don't think Mike wants to be tied with Trumps dirty money and/or guaranteeing him a VP slot. I think Trump as VP would hurt the GOP Ticket (at the same time making 2012 the most money ever spent in a presidential campaign...cause Trumps money could match everything Obama raises dollar for dollar and as VP he could legally kick in as much money as he wanted).

Of course if Mike doesn't reconsider, we'll never know for sure why.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:11 am 
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First, Cain is just another guy....he moved up the charts early then plummited, then bachmann had her turn, then Perry had his turn...now people are back to cain for a little bit. At some point and time people will realize that Cain cannot win. He has no political experience at all. His best run in politics was a 2nd place PRIMARY run in 2004. He has never even run in a general election for ANYTHING. Second, I am seeing way too many things that point to Huck being interested in the VP spot. Perhaps he sees this as a better shot at being president in 2020 after Romney has 8 years. 3rd, 2016 is out of the question because Obama will lose this time around....the only question is who he is going to lose to. The ONLY way he wins is if trump, palin, etc run as a 3rd party.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:21 am 
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Oh my gosh....Cain is such a HAS BEEN in my state. All of this talk of him being a contender just doesn't make sense. Most people in Iowa think he is an opportunist. His polling will drop. And what I don't get is why these so called "frontrunners" even are touting a poll where they can only tie at 17%! Put together....only a third of the electorate supports them. The UNDECIDED is the true frontrunner here at 18%.

Huckabee would blow this thing away.

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