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PostPosted: Sat Nov 12, 2011 11:33 pm 
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mxnwilson wrote:
cschande wrote:
jrebe wrote:
I think we are seeing what we want to see. Yeah sure, it would be the best thing for America, this generation and the next ones, if Huck ran, but, though I hate to say it, I think it's time to move on.


The problem is, to what? At this point the only available alternatives don't appear to be much better than continuing to hold out hope for a miracle.

If I may please offer a suggestion--why not join Huckabee in his efforts to accomplish what he has already informed supporters he wants to do--elect 60 Senators in the 2012 election.


I'm in complete agreement with you there. But you can't blame a guy for wishing we could put an experienced, principled conservative in the White House can you?!

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Post by cschande has received Likes: 4 All-in-for-Mike, mxnwilson, QuoVadisAnima, TheValuesVoter
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 12:16 am 
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I've been on hold concerning Huckabee in 2012. I'm leaning towards Newt or Cain (Newt is my first choice), but if he got in, I'll be behind him. But what I don't want is another Fred Thompson.

What I mean by that is, I don't want Mike to get in unless it is him that wants to run. Fred ran because everyone else wanted him to run, and he really wasn't that personally invested in it. That's why I haven't really been pushing Huck or encouraging him to run. I want to support him, but I want him to want to run first.

It's kind of a catch 22. Do you wait to gauge support before you decide to run, or do you decide to run to gain support? Don't get me wrong, I'd love for Mike to jump in, but not unless he (not us) is convinced he should. And the more and more time that passes, those who supported him in 2008 are moving on to other candidates. His window of opportunity is closing by the day.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 8:33 am 
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Did you hear the crowd this weekend in Branson cheering for Huck to run? It has got to make him think. Also, he told Randy Davis that he is shocked lately at how many folks have been contacting him lately about running that normally would not have. When I see Montel who is a veteran and has so much respect from so many folks stand up the way he did it makes me just want to scream......Huck do you have any idea how many folks respect and love you and want you to run. They are not satisfied with the present field. It is a given he would win Iowa and this momentum would propel him to win South Carolina as a write in ballot......Folks know who Huck is they can spell H U C K!!!!!! It would be nice to win Florida but Super Tuesday would go to Huck.....game set match.



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PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 9:43 am 
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atrain3067 wrote:
I've been on hold concerning Huckabee in 2012. I'm leaning towards Newt or Cain (Newt is my first choice), but if he got in, I'll be behind him. But what I don't want is another Fred Thompson.

What I mean by that is, I don't want Mike to get in unless it is him that wants to run. Fred ran because everyone else wanted him to run, and he really wasn't that personally invested in it. That's why I haven't really been pushing Huck or encouraging him to run. I want to support him, but I want him to want to run first.

It's kind of a catch 22. Do you wait to gauge support before you decide to run, or do you decide to run to gain support? Don't get me wrong, I'd love for Mike to jump in, but not unless he (not us) is convinced he should. And the more and more time that passes, those who supported him in 2008 are moving on to other candidates. His window of opportunity is closing by the day.


I understand the cautions not to get too excited about an unrealistic chance that we could force Gov. Huckabee to run against his will. And, yes, we need to guard our hearts and put some of that energy/love of Huckabee into electing a 60 vote majority in the U.S. Senate and retaining a large House majority. (Are each of us visiting Huck PAC and supporting this political action committee of his?)

But something else is going on here that seems to be beyond us, and even beyond Gov. Huckabee's powers of reason. Why is it that so many Republicans cannot choose one of the other candidates, and why there is such a high level of dissatisfaction? I think it is because there is a vacuum that is caused by Huckabee's absence! And I can't help but think that the way God will use to convince Gov. Huckabee to be willing to serve--for his heart to be in it!--and for concerned conservative leaders to be able to assure him of support is through the way things might be transpiring in answer to prayer.

For me and others here, there is a sense of mystery, that feeling that some sort of door is about to open. Call it woman's intuition, perhaps! Too many people love Gov. Huckabee and his ideas to let go of the thought that the best person could and should still be running. I am not trying to force this or plot schemes, for example, and Gov. Huckabee is not either, though his continued popularity almost make it seem that he must be! The idea of a Huckabee presidency is not going away, and I do not just mean here at Hucks Army. Who knows (I am not counting on or plotting anything!) but there may be some miraculous way that our prayers could still be answered for a unifying Republican candidate to defeat Obama. I do not see it as inconceivable that God could answer our prayers. Many people tell me that if Obama wins, our country may not be able to survive four more years of his torturous socialistic ideas.

If God is inclined to be gracious, though we are undeserving, I fully believe He may provide a pathway for Huckabee that none of the experts and those in power have envisioned.

God has uniquely gifted Mike Huckabee for such a time as this. I am not setting my heart and hopes on this miracle happening. And I will still work to put other Republican conservatives into office. But it would not surprise me at all if God finds some way to help Gov. Huckabee to become President through some sort of unusual avenue. To open a different door than anyone has noticed. There still exists surprising, almost unexplainable, dissatisfaction that makes voters still looking about for a better candidate, one they saw in 2008 that they realize would have led the nation in the right direction.

No Republican candidate is inspiring great confidence or support. Did you realize that we are only 51 days until the Iowa caucus? Without a clear Republican leader, their fund-raising is way behind schedule. I sent Gingrich a $10 gift a couple weeks ago, not because I have decided on him, but because I wanted to encourage him to stay in the race and contribute to more civility in the debates.

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PostPosted: Sun Nov 13, 2011 2:40 pm 
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justgrace wrote:
atrain3067 wrote:
I've been on hold concerning Huckabee in 2012. I'm leaning towards Newt or Cain (Newt is my first choice), but if he got in, I'll be behind him. But what I don't want is another Fred Thompson.

What I mean by that is, I don't want Mike to get in unless it is him that wants to run. Fred ran because everyone else wanted him to run, and he really wasn't that personally invested in it. That's why I haven't really been pushing Huck or encouraging him to run. I want to support him, but I want him to want to run first.

It's kind of a catch 22. Do you wait to gauge support before you decide to run, or do you decide to run to gain support? Don't get me wrong, I'd love for Mike to jump in, but not unless he (not us) is convinced he should. And the more and more time that passes, those who supported him in 2008 are moving on to other candidates. His window of opportunity is closing by the day.


I understand the cautions not to get too excited about an unrealistic chance that we could force Gov. Huckabee to run against his will. And, yes, we need to guard our hearts and put some of that energy/love of Huckabee into electing a 60 vote majority in the U.S. Senate and retaining a large House majority. (Are each of us visiting Huck PAC and supporting this political action committee of his?)

But something else is going on here that seems to be beyond us, and even beyond Gov. Huckabee's powers of reason. Why is it that so many Republicans cannot choose one of the other candidates, and why there is such a high level of dissatisfaction? I think it is because there is a vacuum that is caused by Huckabee's absence! And I can't help but think that the way God will use to convince Gov. Huckabee to be willing to serve--for his heart to be in it!--and for concerned conservative leaders to be able to assure him of support is through the way things might be transpiring in answer to prayer.

For me and others here, there is a sense of mystery, that feeling that some sort of door is about to open. Call it woman's intuition, perhaps! Too many people love Gov. Huckabee and his ideas to let go of the thought that the best person could and should still be running. I am not trying to force this or plot schemes, for example, and Gov. Huckabee is not either, though his continued popularity almost make it seem that he must be! The idea of a Huckabee presidency is not going away, and I do not just mean here at Hucks Army. Who knows (I am not counting on or plotting anything!) but there may be some miraculous way that our prayers could still be answered for a unifying Republican candidate to defeat Obama. I do not see it as inconceivable that God could answer our prayers. Many people tell me that if Obama wins, our country may not be able to survive four more years of his torturous socialistic ideas.

If God is inclined to be gracious, though we are undeserving, I fully believe He may provide a pathway for Huckabee that none of the experts and those in power have envisioned.

God has uniquely gifted Mike Huckabee for such a time as this. I am not setting my heart and hopes on this miracle happening. And I will still work to put other Republican conservatives into office. But it would not surprise me at all if God finds some way to help Gov. Huckabee to become President through some sort of unusual avenue. To open a different door than anyone has noticed. There still exists surprising, almost unexplainable, dissatisfaction that makes voters still looking about for a better candidate, one they saw in 2008 that they realize would have led the nation in the right direction.

No Republican candidate is inspiring great confidence or support. Did you realize that we are only 51 days until the Iowa caucus? Without a clear Republican leader, their fund-raising is way behind schedule. I sent Gingrich a $10 gift a couple weeks ago, not because I have decided on him, but because I wanted to encourage him to stay in the race and contribute to more civility in the debates.


Thank you, Grace, for putting what I've been thinking into words!

Dadof5, I saw Mike's show last night, when Montel Williams stood up in front of a theater full of veterans and said, "Let's recruit Mike Huckabee to run!" He, like us, acknowledged that there is a vacuum in the line-up of candidates. I just hope that more and more people begin to call out to Mike, until there is a chorus of voices across this country saying, "Run, Mike, Run!" :D


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 12:07 am 
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What do you all make of Montel Williams, "But you know sir, (speaking to Corporal Eddie Beasley) we can't be the greatest country until the leaders of this country understand the principles that this man (referring to Governor Huckabee) is talking about! Since we are all disenchanted with every single person who is running, can't we recruit this man?" Tony Orlando shouts "Yea!" and the audience erupts with loud applause which Montel continues to encourage for more applause, saying, "it's an unanimous decision Governor!"

Montel said he told Governor Huckabee something similar back stage before the show. I just can't believe this is all over yet. Why else would Governor Huckabee let these people continue? If he wasn't feeling some sort of tugging why not just say unequivocally NO! absolutely not!



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PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 2:13 am 
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http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... andidates/
Quote:
It’s Not Too Late for Imprudent Speculation About Other Republican Candidates
By NATE SILVER
Nov. 3, 2011

With the recent struggles of Herman Cain and Rick Perry, we may be in for yet another round of rumors about Republican candidates entering the presidential race late.

There was one such rumor on Wednesday from Lee Davis, a radio host in Birmingham, Ala., who cited unnamed sources close to Sarah Palin as saying that Ms. Palin was reconsidering her decision not to seek the nomination. (Audio of the segment in which Mr. Davis reported this information can be found here.)

The probability that these rumors will come to fruition is very low. Nevertheless, it’s worth at least considering the barriers that a candidate would face in entering the race now.

One major constraint is that the filing deadline has already passed in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida. So a candidate who entered now could not get her name on the ballot in those states, although some states, like New Hampshire, allow for write-in votes.

However, the candidate could participate in caucuses, including the Jan. 3 caucus in Iowa and the February caucuses in Maine, Nevada, Colorado and Minnesota, which do not have rigid filing deadlines.

She would also potentially be able to participate in the primaries in Arizona and Michigan on Feb. 28, which are the next primaries following a four-week gap after Florida. Arizona’s filing deadline is not until Jan. 9. Michigan’s deadline is a little tricky. The nominal deadline is Nov. 15, but candidates can also get on the ballot by petition if they collect 10,000 voter signatures by Dec. 9.

So the path for Sarah Palin or another late-entering candidate would look something like this:

1. Devote all your attention to Iowa and perform impressively enough there — ideally by winning — that you appear to be viable.

2. Watch as the other candidates duke it out in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida and hope that no one candidate sweeps them, in which case the winner is probably on his or her way to the nomination. Maybe you can run a write-in bid if you think it can get you favorable media attention, but this would mostly be for show.

3. Consider how likely you are to win the caucuses in Maine, Nevada, Colorado and Minnesota in early February. If you think you can win them or otherwise perform well, make a strong play in one or more of the states. Otherwise spend your time in Arizona and Michigan while finding some other way to manage expectations and stay in the news.

4. Arizona and Michigan vote on Feb. 28. It is probably essential that you win at least one of these states.

If the candidate were able to accomplish each of these things, her late start would probably not be much of a barrier to her from that point onward. Florida, New Hampshire and South Carolina collectively account for only about 4 percent of the delegates to the Republican National Convention, so she would be at only a very modest disadvantage mathematically.

But the delegate math is one thing. Just how plausible is this scenario? Let’s examine it one step at a time in the context of Ms. Palin.

Read the rest:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... andidates/

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PostPosted: Mon Nov 14, 2011 2:30 pm 
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It just seems like everyone else keeps imploding. Obviously many, many people do not want Romney to win and that is why Newt is now really close to him in the polls. I feel like Huckabee would be the clear favorite right now if he were running. The rest of the candidates have just been really, really bad in my view. I think he could win by entering late even if he would have to be written in in several states.

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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 10:36 am 
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Do we have any connections with a polling group? Even a smaller one? In the last 6 months we have seen around 8 candidates leading the GOP field at one time or another (Huckabee, Romney, Trump, Rudy, Cain (two different times), Perry, Newt, and even Bachman was close) and no one sticks (TBD on Newt). Why can't we get a poll and call it the white knight poll or something....and the poll can ask the following:

If you had the choice between any of the current republican candidates for president or a candidate that is not currently running, which would you chose?

If you were to choose a candidate currently running, who would you choose between Mitt Romney, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Michelle Bachman, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and John Huntsman?

If you were to choose a candidate who is not currently running, who would you choose between Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Donald Trump, or someone else?

Then maybe do some head to head polls like who would you vote for if your choices were Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee (or Newt and Huck or Mitt and Daniels or whatever).

I think that if someone actually did a poll like this, the entire GOP might be shocked by the results. I think that a good 75% or voters would say they want someone else (that isnt currently running) and that a heads up between Huck and any current candidate could be a 65-35 landslide, or even more if it was like Huckabee vs Paul or Perry.

Can anyone send this idea to an actual pollster?



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PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:57 pm 
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Karrboy, I think this would be fabulous. But it costs a lot of money to sponsor a poll. they would have to do it "just for the fun of it," i.e., to generate an interesting story and an attention-grabbing headline.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 10:10 am 
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I wanted to go back to this discussion after giving the primary race some more thought. The GOP has changed the way they do things and now any state that votes before April 1 will have proportionate delegates split between candidates. This info has already been brought up, but I think it deserves a little more discussion.

There are 27 states that will hold votes before 4/1/12. Based on my calculations, those states hold almost exactly 50% of the delegates for the GOP. While anything can happen in the next 50 days or so, it seems likely that there will be three major players, 1 intermediate player, and 1 minor player. Romney. Newt, and Paul are the major players. Now, I know Ron Paul isnt winning the nomination. But he has the second lowest floor in my opinion (Romney would be 1st) and that floor will keep him in for a long time. Newt and Romney lead the polls and while people cold sour on the newest person to challenge Romney, I think Newt has some staying power.

The intermediate candidate is Cain. He has alot of support, alot of people who like that he isnt from inside the political mess and people who simply like his charisma. Maybe continued attacks will drive him totally out, but I dont think so.

I had to leave Rick Perry as a minor player for one reason: $$. The guy has alot of it and I think that there will still be people who vote for him.

The rest of the group won't ever pass 15% of any states vote in my opinion, which is usually the minimum for a candidate to receive any delegates.

Looking at early states I think that there might not be a front runner for quite a while. Iowa should go Newt, Cain, and then maybe even santorum or another socon before romney. NH will probably go Romney, Paul, Newt. SC could go Newt, Cain, Paul. Florida who knows...the point is that going into super tuesday, where alot of delegates are available (but are still going to be split) no one will be a clear leader. In fact, there is a solid chance that someone could not even win a state early but still be one of the leaders simply be grabbing 2nd or 3rd in every race (this certainly has to be what the paulites are hoping for).

The point in all of this is that I honestly believe someone could enter AS LATE AS FEBRUARY 1st and still win the nomination. They would have 4 weeks before the AZ and Michigan primaries to get their name out there and show people they are for real....they would simply need to finish in the top 4 or 5 just to show they are in it...then super tuesday is march 6th....


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 10:12 am 
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.....the person doesnt get attacked cause there is no time to do so and that may not be seen as a credible threat. But for those people seeing no one take a lead and still wanting a better option, they would be able to vote for this new person.

I am not trying to say Huckabee would do this. I am not opening that door for him. All I am saying is that someone could let people duke it out for another few months and then get in and still win this thing. Guess we'll just wait and see.


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 3:15 pm 
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Any chance Iowans can really show their displeasure by choosing G.H. at the caucus?


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 3:53 pm 
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steves wrote:
Any chance Iowans can really show their displeasure by choosing G.H. at the caucus?


This would take even more of an effort that the proposed ames poll takeover that no one was actually willing to work for. First, can Iowan's even write in? Second, if they can, I think that Iowa is still proud of being first in the nation. If they vote for someone who isn't running, all it will do is show they arent happy with the current crop, but I don't think Huck would get in because of it. I dont think they will waste their votes unless there was an actual write-in campaign.....which would be nice, but expensive.


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