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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 5:47 pm 
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This seems a little low for Newt. I'd expect the next PPP poll to have a little wider of a lead for him.

I don't think the debate Monday will have that much affect other than to keep the same trajectory as the current trend.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 6:01 pm 
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WalterCan wrote:
This seems a little low for Newt. I'd expect the next PPP poll to have a little wider of a lead for him.

I don't think the debate Monday will have that much affect other than to keep the same trajectory as the current trend.


I agree with this too. Romney releasing his tax records today and judging by how the reactions have been to what it revealed will probably change it more in favor of Newt than yesterday's debate will.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 6:08 pm 
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I think Newt was opening up a lead before the debate, and the lead will get wider. I agree though that Romney's "self-deportation" comment and his taxes could fuel that even more.


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 6:22 pm 
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Latest Rasmussen Florida poll: Gingrich 41%, Romney 32%

Monday, January 23, 2012

Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 6:23 pm 
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I don't see the self-deportation thing being that big a deal, but his taxes are sure to be!

Pew: Voters Care Less About Illegal Immigration, Environment
http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012 ... enviro.php


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:00 pm 
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Someone needs to explain the whole "self deportation" comment. I actually didn't watch the debate (too many people in my house that would be horrified if it was on so in the interest of family harmony I pass).

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:23 pm 
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Here's a clip


And this op-ed is all the more interesting since it comes from a foxnews writer
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politi ... portation/


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:48 pm 
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QuoVadisAnima wrote:
I don't see the self-deportation thing being that big a deal, but his taxes are sure to be!

Pew: Voters Care Less About Illegal Immigration, Environment
http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2012 ... enviro.php


I think the tax issue will hurt him nationally (especially in a general). Florida though may be different.

Half the Republicans in the state (or their parents) moved to Florida in some measure because it has no income tax. I don't really see that issue having much traction. Most Floridians I know feel that the less you've paid the more you've beaten "the man."

The off-shore stuff might and the donations to LDS could remind folks of those aspects of Mitt in a way he nets out as a negative.

I think the immediate damage over the tax question was his response to the question itself especially in the debate. The voter says, "What are you hiding?...that?.. that is your answer to whether you will release you tax records?...maybe-think about-April-if it's customary-weasel answer? You gotta be kiddin me...this guys a joke."

But now that has a chance to fade. Other states and in the general is another matter.

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PostPosted: Tue Jan 24, 2012 10:20 pm 
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I have to say that to some extent self deportation does work. There has been an exodus of illegals back to Mexico and other Latin American countries due to the current economy. It's not really a completely laughable idea. Having said that, we can't completely depend on it as a solution to the problem. Those who have extensive connections to the U.S. will not self-deport. Those who are involved in the criminal economy (drug dealers, human traffickers, etc) will not self-deport. Young adults who haven't lived in their native countries since they were toddlers will not self deport, especially if they don't know anybody there. Illegal immigration is an extremely complex problem and it will take a multifaceted approach to solve it. The problem with that is that there is no political up side to confronting the problem in a way that will actually solve it.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:26 am 
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Some of this has been previously posted, but since I had them all together decided to leave them that way for comparison.

Rasmussen national poll: Gingrich 38, Romney 28, Santorum 16, Paul 10.

Latest out of Florida, January 24, 2012
Poll: PPP (D)
Gingrich 38, Romney 33, Santorum 13 and Paul 10

Latest Nat’l Poll January 24, 2012
Poll: Gallup Tracking
Gingrich 31, Romney 27, Santorum 12 and Paul 12


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:52 am 
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Quinnipiac Florida poll:

Romney 36%
Gingrich 34%
Santorum 13%
Paul 10%


http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-an ... aseID=1694

Polling dates: 1/19 - 1/23

Note: 3 of the 5 days of polling were prior to the South Carolina. The poll says that Gingrich polled better on the 22nd and 23rd, but it doesn't give any numbers as to how much better. My guess is that Romney led the first three days before SC, and Gingrich led the last 2 days. Just a guess though.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:58 am 
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Florida Chamber of Commerce poll:

Romney: 33%
Gingrich: 33%
Santorum: 10%
Paul: 6%

Poll conducted January 22-23.

Note: this poll polled registered voters and not likely voters. This explains the high number of undecided voters in this poll. I would also guess that Newt's supporters have more passion about voting than Romney's supporters, so Romney would do better in a registered voter poll and Gingrich would do better in a likely voter poll.

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_p ... -heat.html


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:06 pm 
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I agree with your assessment of likely voters breaking for Gingrich.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-gingrich-winning-the-crowd-contest-in-florida-20120125,0,2894695.story

Newt Gingrich winning the crowd contest in Florida

Gingrich is riding a spurt of momentum after his victory in last weekend’s South Carolina primary. He has now passed Romney in polling ahead of next Tuesday’s Florida primary, the first big-state test of 2012.

The former House speaker drew enormous crowds on Tuesday in the Sunshine State, the final one attracting more than 5,000 people. On the same day, Romney drew about 150 people to a closed speech in Tampa and addressed about 300 people outside a foreclosed house in southwest Florida later in the day.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:46 pm 
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Just a word about the crowd size. Ron Paul drew the biggest crowds in Iowa and came in 3rd. Huckabee, on the night before the election in SC in 2008, drew almost 3400 people at Winthrop University. He ended up losing.

I've learned a good bit after volunteering extensively in the Huckabee and Santorum campaigns. IMO, the key is campaign organization and a likeable candidate who can connect with voters. Huckabee mastered the connection with voters but lacked the organization in SC. I talked extensively last week in Huckabee's former field director in SC. They lost because of disorganization, particularly at the main office in Columbia. Even though Huckabee had the largest crowd (he said an historically large crowd), he still lost.

By contrast, Santorum's organization was much better than Huckabee's but he lacked the Iowa win (until just before the primary) and he's lacking the ability to connect in the same way as Huckabee.

Newt's campaign in SC was disorganized, cancelling events the day before the primary and it's showing in FL. He's always running late and some folks left at his last stop of the day before he got there and were not happy when they left.

Quote:
At the end of the day in Naples, the weaknesses of a perpetually delayed campaign begin to reveal themselves. Gingrich is ultimately over an hour and a half late to his outdoor rally. A few would-be attendees begin leaving after about 30 minutes, lawn chairs and blankets in hand. People in the crowd are confused and a little more than annoyed. The sun goes down, and the tireless Ron Paul supporters, who are always cropping up at other candidates’ events, begin moving in on the crowd.


http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/newt-one-theyve-been-waiting_618500.html

I'm not making a judgment about what that implies; I have no idea who will win FL. But a disorganized campaign can hurt a candidate and I now understand why everyone's always touting Romney's well-organized campaign. But it takes more than organization and more than a winning message that connects with voters. IMO, it actually takes both.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:47 pm 
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Quinnipiac is kind of hit and miss when it comes to polling, and with most of these days coming before the SC win it is not reflective of what is really happening.

However.....how much you want to bet FoxNews touts this as evidence that "Things are tightening up in Florida with one poll showing Mitt Romney in the lead!" Fox has been desperate to try and create some momentum for Romney, and I bet they seize on this as an opportunity.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 3:48 pm 
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http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20 ... r-florida/

"The American Research Group poll was conducted January 23-24, with 600 likely Florida GOP primary voters questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points."

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 4:05 pm 
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This is really surprising given that Rasmussen and PPP have Newt up by 7 and 5 respectively around the same time period. I guess it is possible that the heavy bombardment of negative ads is having some impact. I'll be watching to see if the two polling groups I named above come out with a follow-up poll in the next couple of days to see what their trends are showing.

Whether this poll is accurate or not it could serve to keep Newt from taking things for granted and cause him to hit back harder against Romney's attacks in Thursday's debate.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 4:24 pm 
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They also showed Rubio behind C.Crist and we know how that turned out.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 4:31 pm 
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Yeah, I'm a little questionable about this poll too. I just can't see Romney's answer with 'self-deportation' and also what his tax records revealed actually giving him a boost.

And with the following anti-Romney ad that the Democrats have started to run in Florida, gives me even further doubt about the poll.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2012 4:39 pm 
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BrownKB,
You are right. He tries to shake hands with everyone and when you have large numbers show up, you cant do that and run on time. I agree, he needs to take care of this problem or he will be losing voters.

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