I just saw this on Drudge.
SHOCK POLL: 20% of Republicans leaning to Obama?
Depressing.

http://drudgereport.com/

Link to the article:
http://www.wnd.com/2012/02/20-of-republ ... -to-obama/

Obama would defeat all of the four Republicans if the election were held today, but Ron Paul fares the best against the incumbent. Obama leads Paul, 44 percent to 40 percent, with 16 percent undecided.

“This is likely a reflection of discontent over Obama’s handling of the economy and, in particular, his outsized appetite for deficit spending,” observed Wenzel. “Paul has far and away offered the clearest and most serious plan to cut federal spending, and it appears to be recognized by these survey respondents.”

Romney also is within single digits of Obama, currently trailing, 48 percent to 41 percent. Obama leads both Gingrich and Rick Santorum Santorum by double-digits. Obama leads Gingrich, 50 percent to 36 percent, and Santorum, 49 percent to 34 percent.

Latest Gallup national poll has Santorum up 4% from the previous poll (Romney and Paul down 1, Gingrich down 2):

Romney 36
Gingrich 20
Santorum 20
Paul 10
http://www.gallup.com/poll/election.aspx

Not to quibble but the move as I see it was from 17 to 20 (3 points). That is still a huge number and represents a major SURGE/Bump in his polling the night after the Tuesday wins.

Given that Gallup uses a five day rolling average and Santorum's numbers were very stable during the previous week, his "one night" polling last night would have needed to range between 28 and 35 percent.

It remains to be seen if he can keep that bump or build on it. He will almost certainly become at least the clear 2nd place contender in the national poll within three or four days.

We put a national poll in the field today and pretty clear your new leader is Rick Santorum.

Most volatile race of all time?

We're going to have our new national GOP poll, showing a pretty healthy Santorum lead, out tomorrow morning

Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.

Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.

Part of the reason for Santorum's surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney's favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That's a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28).

Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' he's now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney.

It used to be that Gingrich was leading with all these groups and Romney was staying competitive enough with them to hold the overall lead. No more- a consensus conservative candidate finally seems to be emerging and it's Santorum.
The best thing Romney might have going for him right now is Gingrich's continued presence in the race. If Gingrich dropped out 58% of his supporters say they would move to Santorum, while 22% would go to Romney and 17% to Paul. Santorum gets to 50% in the Newt free field to 28% for Romney and 15% for Paul.

Of course if there's been one constant theme in this GOP race it's that once you get to the top you tend to start heading back down. Only 48% of voters say they're solidly committed to their current candidate choice, while 52% say they're open to changing their minds. Santorum's support isn't that solid and when Romney uses his superior resources to pulverize him, we could see this lead evaporate just as quickly as it was built up. But for now there's been a stunning reversal in the race and Santorum's your new leader.