It is also standard methodology to "capture" early and absentee voting in your polling screens. You do not discard such voters when you survey. So the polls we are looking at are fair reflections of where the race stands today.

Over time the main consideration involving early and absentee is how much flexibility remains in the electorate to change their minds and whether a particular early GOTV is so superior before the last Tuesday as to allow them more opportunity to grap a greater share of their "weak" vote and undecideds on election day itself.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

New Mitchell/Detroit News Michigan Poll:

Santorum: 34%
Romney: 25%
Paul: 11%
Gingrich: 5%
Undecided: 25%

Poll was conducted February 14.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2 ... I_0215.pdf

When are the Michigan and Arizona primaries?

Mods, could we get a sticky with primary/caucus dates?

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"Never, Never, NEVER GIVE UP" Winston Churchill

They're both on Feb 28.

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http://homeschoolershearthuckabee.blogspot.com

Now that we have some more national polls since the wins by Santorum on Feb. 7, we have a better read on where things stand. If you average the 5 of them (CBS, Pew, PPP, Gallup, CNN) we get this result:

Santorum: 32.4%
Romney: 28.4%
Gingrich: 15.0%
Paul: 12.2%
Undecided: 12.0%

Compare this to the three polls (ABC, Reuters, Rasmussen) of the state of the race after Florida but before Santorum's wins:

Romney: 31.7%
Gingrich: 23.3%
Santorum: 18.0%
Paul: 15.3%
Undecided: 11.7%

Gingrich -8.3% (down 35.6%)
Romney -3.3% (down 10.4%)
Paul -3.1% (down 20.3%)
Santorum +14.7%


So, nationally Santorum has gained about 15 points, but that doesn't mean that he's gained 15 points in every state. Some states will be more and some less. Gingrich has lost the most support, so states where Gingrich was strong, you would expect Santorum to have bigger than 15 point gains, and places where he was weak (like the northeast), the gains would be smaller than 15 points.

Applying this to Arizona, since this is what we are interested in since it votes next (and we have no polls yet), we only really have one poll to go off of:

Rasmussen (Feb. 1):
Romney: 48%
Gingrich 24%
Santorum 13%
Paul 6%

If you subtract 20.3% of Paul's support, 10.4% of Romney's support, and 35.6% of Gingrich's support and then add those numbers to Santorum's support, you get:

Arizona guess:
Romney: 43.0%
Santorum: 27.7%
Gingrich: 15.5%
Paul: 4.8%


Now, that's just a guess for Arizona. I would further speculate that voters in Arizona would tend to gravitate towards either Romney or Santorum knowing that Gingrich can't win it. So, Gingrich's support is probably lower than 15%, Santorum's is higher, and Romney's is slightly higher. It's probably a 10-15% advantage for Romney in Arizona right now.

New ARG poll from AZ:

Romney: 38%
Santorum: 31%
Gingrich: 15%
Paul: 11%

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/15/poll-santorum-jumps-in-arizona/

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http://homeschoolershearthuckabee.blogspot.com

Pretty good guess for the Arizona numbers!

Big gender gap in that poll. Santorum actually leads Romney among men 37-30, but he's getting killed among women 47-24. This gap has shown up in other polls as well. I wonder if it has more to do with Mitt's strength among women voters, or Santorum's weakness with that group, or some combination of the two. As a Santorum supporter I have to admit, this concerns me a bit looking ahead to the general (which I probably shouldn't be doing yet anyway, haha).

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But not so in the Rasmussen national poll:



http://hotair.com/archives/2012/02/15/rasmussen-national-poll-puts-santorum-up-12-over-romney/

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http://homeschoolershearthuckabee.blogspot.com

Maybe it's just those Arizona women. Half of em are probably really Californians transplanted into AZ...

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THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.

http://www.mrgmi.com/MRG_IMP_PRIMARY_FINAL.pdf

Michigan poll (Inside Michigan Politics)

Santorum: 43%
Romney: 33%
Gingrich: 11%
Paul: 8%


Polling Dates: Feb 13, 14

I just saw that. Good to hear!

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Early voting turnout is high in AZ.



Not sure how all the early voting affects the outcome but I would think that it helps Santorum some since he's still surging at this time.

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