Huge numbers and a bigger shift. These aren't just transferred Gingrich supporters but we are also seeing the FIRST real crack in the Romney base support level. That is the biggest take away. ALL of Romney's strategy of inevitability and persistent power is flanked. The Emperor has no clothes.

Santorum's surge is perfectly timed. What I wonder is if the Romney-Gingrich fight has burned through so much of their potential good-will that their negatives will now limit their options.

Negative campaigning is most effective when the target is unknown or has their own negatives, but the one directing the negative does better if they themselves have at least some net positive rating. Regardless, negative campaigning almost always drives down both candidates approval. But on a given election day the candidate with the high approval generally gets more votes. Romney and Gingrich may not have the net pos vs. neg. rating to be effective in negative tactics against Santorum at this point. Fortunately for them they will have the media and Obama to knock down Santorum's favorables. But in that regard he had better get use to it.

_________________
"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

New polls are coming out too showing Santorum being more competitive against Obama than Romney. Romney's "I'm the most electable candidate" argument is also slipping away.

I've been doing some thinking about different qualities of candidates, and what is most important during a primary. I could come up with six different qualities and I'll rank them in order of importance, which is of course a subjective ranking.

1. The candidate's perceived electability. Most of all people want someone who will win. (Romney has been the strongest here (and that is changing), then Santorum, then Gingrich)

2. The candidate's message, current positions on the issues of the day, and their ability to articulate their message. (Gingrich is the strongest here, then Santorum, then Romney)

3. The candidate's personal qualities such as integrity, likability, charisma, physical appearance, etc. (Santorum is strongest here, then Romney, then Gingrich)

4. The candidate's past positions on issues and their experience and history. (Santorum is strongest here, then Gingrich, then Romney)

5. How much money the candidate has. (Romney is strongest here, then Gingrich, then Santorum, but Santorum and Gingrich are now switching places)

6. The candidate's campaign organization. (Romney is strongest here, then Santorum, then Gingrich)


You can see that if Romney loses the electability argument, then all he's got left are #5 and #6 on the list. Santorum is already ahead in #2, #3, and #4. If he takes over #1, then it's over. Gingrich had such a surge because he was doing the best on #2.

Recent polls from Rasmussen show Santorum doing better than Romney in Ohio, in Florida, and nationally. Santorum also beat Romney in the key swing state of Colorado. Missouri and Minnestoa weren't even close. It's possible that Romney abandons Michigan and tries to just hold Arizona. If Arizona falls to Santorum, then Romney may make his last stand on Super Tuesday, then get wiped out. The party is starting to unite against him.

I would add that another advantage that Santorum has over the rest of the field is that his campaign has been working on fumes, & he has proven capable of staying the course against opponents with more money. What would Romney do if he made it to the general & suddenly has to compete against someone drastically better funded & even dirtier in tactics than he is? He'd be lost. And he would lose.

And while I don't want to irritate anyone, and am not at all suggesting that Santorum deserves it either (as I am not supporting him because I believe he's the next face to go on Mt Rushmore), I would also add that Providence certainly seems to be on his side for some reason. In looking back to the very beginning of this race, at everyone's assessments of his prospects, & how everything has transpired to propel him to this position, one has to credit either coincidence (and this has been a statistically improbable, awful lot of coincidence) or Providence. That advantage clearly trumps ALL the rest!

Gallup Daily Tracking poll:

2/4 - 2/10
Romney: 34%
Santorum: 24%
Gingrich: 17%
Paul: 8%

Note: this is a seven-day rolling average. 4 of the days are prior to the three state sweep by Santorum.

3 days ago before any of the data came in from post-Tuesday polls it looked like this:
Romney: 37%
Gingrich: 21%
Santorum: 17%
Paul: 12%

Santorum has been gaining about 2 points per day in Gallup. Once the remaining 4 days from before Tuesday night drop off, he may gain another 8 or 9 points. Most likely Santorum and Romney are very close nationally with Santorum perhaps having a slight lead. Santorum has also consistently out-performed the polls on election night (so did Gingrich in SC too) due to the conservatives having more passion and motivation than the moderates backing Romney. Add to all of this that Gingrich's support is likely to slip in the coming weeks as the race evolves into a Romney vs. Santorum race. It's always hard for the third man to get any oxygen. The former Gingrich supporters will only add to Santorum's numbers further increasing his lead over Romney. Most people don't realize it yet, but Santorum is now the frontrunner, for the moment anyways. Sites like this are always ahead of the curve.

New Gallup national tracking poll:

Romney: 34%
Santorum: 27%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 8%


5-day tracking poll encompassing Tuesday through Saturday.

Sounds about right. I think it's ok for Santorum to lag behind nationally at this point; the difference comes when it's time to campaign in the individual state. It's how he won Iowa, and it might be why he had the energy in Colorado.

He's the only candidate I'm aware of that has come to my state so far, not just for fundraising, but for actual campaign rallies.

_________________
THE TIMES are nightfall, look, their light grows less;
The times are winter, watch, a world undone:
They waste, they wither worse; they as they run
Or bring more or more blazon man’s distress.
And I not help. Nor word now of success:
All is from wreck, here, there, to rescue one—
Work which to see scarce so much as begun
Makes welcome death, does dear forgetfulness.
Or what is else? There is your world within.
There rid the dragons, root out there the sin.
Your will is law in that small commonweal…
G.M. Hopkins.

Gallup tracking poll for Monday 2/13/12

Romney: 32%
Santorum: 30%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 8%

Pew Research National GOP Primary Poll:

http://www.people-press.org/files/legac ... elease.pdf

Santorum: 30%
Romney: 28%
Gingrich: 17%
Paul: 12%

CBS News/New York Times GOP National Poll:

Dates: Feb 8-13

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162- ... -gop-race/

Santorum:30%
Romney: 27%
Paul: 12%
Gingrich: 10%
Others & Undecided: 21%

It will now become clear to the national media what HANN reported last week - Santorum is the new frontrunner - he has both consolidated conservatives and reduced Romney's base - Gingrich is at serious risk of rapid collapse.

If you project the Other/Undecideds among the top four you get the following:

Santorum: 38%
Romney: 34%
Paul: 15%
Gingrich: 12%

_________________
"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

Gallup tracking poll for tuesday 2/14/12

The numbers are unchanged:

Romney: 32%
Santorum: 30%
Gingrich: 16%
Paul: 8%

That leaves another 14% unaffiliated.

CNN/Opinion Research 2/14/12:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/image ... /rel2a.pdf

Santorum 34
Romney 32
Paul 16
Gingrich 15

_________________
Ken

New Rasmussen numbers:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... al_primary

Santorum: 39%
Romney: 27%
Gingrich: 15%
Paul: 10%

_________________
http://homeschoolershearthuckabee.blogspot.com

Nice!! Romney down double digits!

Gallup tracking poll for Wednesday 2/15

Romney: 33% (+1)
Santorum: 31% (+1)
Gingrich: 15% (-1)
Paul: 8% (no change)


Right now Gallup is the only national poll showing Romney still in the lead.

Could be because they're still polling registered voters instead of likely voters for whatever reason.

_________________
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Gallup tracking poll for Thursday 2/16

Santorum takes the lead!

Santorum: 32% (+1)
Romney: 31% (-2)
Gingrich: 14% (-1)
Paul: 10% (+2)

It looks like some people who were supporting Romney because they thought he was the inevitable winner are realizing that he's not inevitable, and they are starting to turn on Romney too.

Gingrich continues to slip. He's trailing badly in Arizona and Michigan, and Gingrich only probably still leads in Georgia. That's probably precarious too. The momentum from Arizona, Michigan, and Washington will likely push Georgia into the Santorum camp as well.

The whole Santorum vs. Gingrich thing isn't going to matter either. Gingrich is still very much anti-Romney and plans to go after him in the debate. He'll likely endorse Santorum at some point. If he collapses quickly after losing Arizona, Michigan, and Washington, he might drop out and endorse Santorum before Super Tuesday. More likely, he'll hang on through Super Tuesday and endorse Santorum after Super Tuesday.

I'm not sure how the delegate process works, but if Gingrich endorses Santorum, does that mean that Gingrich's delegates go to Santorum also? Another issue with the delegates that Romney supporters are not factoring in is this. Florida and Arizona are violating the rules by allocating delegates in a winner-take-all fashion. If needed in a close race, this will be challenged and overturned to proportional allocation. Romney's advantage from Florida will be wiped out once the Gingrich and Santorum delegates are awarded to Santorum. The same will happen in Arizona too.

We still need to see how Santorum stands up to the increased scrutiny & attacks.

I'm at the point where I am about to give up looking at the news outside of HA at least for the next couple of weeks - so much hate and viciousness going on out there.

Gallup tracking poll for Friday 2/17

Santorum widens lead from 1 point to 4 points.

Santorum: 34% (+2)
Romney: 30% (-1)
Gingrich: 14% (0)
Paul: 11% (+1)