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 Post subject: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Thu Feb 16, 2012 10:38 am 
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Thought I would make a new thread for just Michigan polling.

Average of MI polls:
Santorum: 34.9%
Romney: 33.3%
Paul: 11.3%
Gingrich: 8.6%
Undecided: 12.1%

ARG:
Santorum: 38%
Romney: 34%
Paul: 12%
Gingrich: 7%
Undecided: 9%

PPP:
Santorum: 37%
Romney: 33%
Paul: 15%
Gingrich: 10%
Undecided: 5%

Rasmussen:
Santorum: 38%
Romney: 34%
Paul: 10%
Gingrich: 9%
Undecided: 9%

We Ask America:
Romney: 29%
Santorum: 29%
Paul: 12%
Gingrich: 10%
Undecided: 20%

Rosetta Stone:
Romney: 32%
Santorum: 30%
Gingrich: 9%
Paul: 7%
Undecided: 22%

Marist:
Romney: 37%
Santorum: 35%
Paul: 13%
Gingrich: 8%
Undecided: 7%

EPIC/MRA:
Santorum: 37%
Romney: 34%
Paul: 10%
Gingrich: 7%
Undecided: 12%



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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:28 pm 
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New Michigan ARG poll:

Polling dates: Feb. 15-16

Santorum: 37% (+4)
Romney: 32% (+5)
Paul: 15% (+3)
Gingrich: 10% (-11)
Undecided: 6% (-1)

Previous ARG poll was Feb. 11-12

Updated the summary post as well.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Quote:
Santorum and Romney are tied with 35% each among self-identified Republicans, followed by Paul with 15% and Gingrich with 13%. Among self-identified independents and Democrats, Santorum leads with 40%, followed by Romney with 27%, Paul with 15%, and Gingrich with 5%.

Santorum leads Romney 38% to 30% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will definitely vote in the March 6 primary, followed by Paul with 15% and Gingrich with 11%. Romney leads Santorum 40% to 32% among those saying they will probably vote, followed by Paul with 15% and Gingrich with 6%.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 3:55 pm 
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Santorum is ahead of Romney by 8.2 points according to Real Clear Politics averages. Their chart is very telling. I couldn't figure out how to post the image here so go to the RCP Michigan site.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-1589.html

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2012 11:21 pm 
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New PPP results:

Santorum: 37%
Romney: 33%
Paul: 15%
Gingrich: 10%

This is about in line with the other recent polls in Michigan. It's a tight race with still a week to go.

36% say they could change their mind. scratch

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2012 11:34 pm 
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brownkb wrote:
New PPP results:

Santorum: 37%
Romney: 33%
Paul: 15%
Gingrich: 10%

This is about in line with the other recent polls in Michigan. It's a tight race with still a week to go.

36% say they could change their mind. scratch


I think their poll from last week with Santorum up 15 pts was probably the most inaccurate of them all. Rasmussen shows him up only 3 pts.

I saw that Mitt is using Trump in a Michigan ad for drive time. I hope that backfires on the hometown boy.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Sun Feb 19, 2012 11:47 pm 
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Iowans Rock wrote:
brownkb wrote:
New PPP results:

Santorum: 37%
Romney: 33%
Paul: 15%
Gingrich: 10%

This is about in line with the other recent polls in Michigan. It's a tight race with still a week to go.

36% say they could change their mind. scratch


I think their poll from last week with Santorum up 15 pts was probably the most inaccurate of them all. Rasmussen shows him up only 3 pts.

I saw that Mitt is using Trump in a Michigan ad for drive time. I hope that backfires on the hometown boy.



I agree that the 15 point lead was inaccurate. Their sample was bad. This one is probably more accurate. Gallup shows Santorum leading nationally, and Michigan is a state that should lean a little bit towards Romney, so the race in Michigan should be very close.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:02 am 
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Interesting result from the PPP poll that I expected:

The endorsement from Gov. Snyder of Romney made 13% of voters more likely to support Romney, and 28% less likely. The rest didn't care. Snyder isn't popular among conservatives who voted against him in the primary in 2010.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 12:13 am 
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Here's another tidbit from that PPP poll:

Voters 18-45:
Santorum: 32%
Romney: 28%
Paul: 23%
Gingrich: 12%

Voters 46-65:
Santorum: 44%
Romney: 30%
Paul: 13%
Gingrich: 6%

Voters older than 65:
Romney: 42%
Santorum: 34%
Gingrich: 12%
Paul: 6%


Romney's strength comes from older voters. It's been like that in other states too, but it seems to be really pronounced in Michigan. That's probably because those are the only voters who remember George Romney as Governor. It's among those voters that the Romney name is remembered favorably. Or it could be that older voters just like Romney's establishment-friendly stance.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:22 am 
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EricB wrote:
Interesting result from the PPP poll that I expected:

The endorsement from Gov. Snyder of Romney made 13% of voters more likely to support Romney, and 28% less likely. The rest didn't care. Snyder isn't popular among conservatives who voted against him in the primary in 2010.
It is funny how most of Romney's endorsers are net negatives!


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:36 pm 
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New Michigan poll shows it a tie.

We Ask America:
Romney: 29%
Santorum: 29%
Paul: 12%
Gingrich: 10%
Undecided: 20%

Undecideds are really high for a week out from the election.

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/02/20/mi-dead-heat/


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Mon Feb 20, 2012 5:38 pm 
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I suspect a lot of Santorum's newer support is still waffling between him & the others. The barrage of negative attacks & the MSM's headlines of him the last few days are bound to make people who haven't been following or done much research uneasy. Wednesday's debate will probably be very important for solidifying that support - or losing it, don't you think?


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 10:19 am 
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Mitchell Rosetta Michigan 2/20/12:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2 ... I_0220.pdf

Romney 32
Santorum 30
Gingrich 9
Paul 7
Undecided 22

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:28 pm 
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The barrage of negative advertising is intense here in Michigan. Most of the ads that I see on TV are from Romney's SuperPAC. There are also ads from Santorum's SuperPAC and from Romney's campaign. All of the Romney or Romney SuperPAC ads that I have seen so far without exception are negative ads attacking Santorum. The Santorum SuperPAC ad is a positive ad promoting Santorum.

I kind of have an interesting perspective on Michigan since I'm originally from Texas. There are lots of people here in Michigan who call themselves conservatives, but who I consider to be moderates. Their definition of "conservative" is difficult than the definition I knew from growing up in Texas. I wouldn't surprise me if Romney pulled it out in Michigan, but it should be close.


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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 12:31 pm 
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EricB wrote:
The barrage of negative advertising is intense here in Michigan. Most of the ads that I see on TV are from Romney's SuperPAC. There are also ads from Santorum's SuperPAC and from Romney's campaign. All of the Romney or Romney SuperPAC ads that I have seen so far without exception are negative ads attacking Santorum. The Santorum SuperPAC ad is a positive ad promoting Santorum.

I kind of have an interesting perspective on Michigan since I'm originally from Texas. There are lots of people here in Michigan who call themselves conservatives, but who I consider to be moderates. Their definition of "conservative" is difficult than the definition I knew from growing up in Texas. I wouldn't surprise me if Romney pulled it out in Michigan, but it should be close.


Eric,
Has Paul been airing his negative Santorum ad that Rombots at Race42012 are so excited about? http://race42012.com/2012/02/21/ron-pau ... servative/

Rombots give Paul credit for helping dethrone Newt in Iowa and Florida.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 3:51 pm 
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Rasmussen 2/21:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... an_primary

Santorum 38
Romney 34
Paul 10
Gingrich 9
Undecided 8
Other 1

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:11 pm 
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GrannyT wrote:
EricB wrote:
The barrage of negative advertising is intense here in Michigan. Most of the ads that I see on TV are from Romney's SuperPAC. There are also ads from Santorum's SuperPAC and from Romney's campaign. All of the Romney or Romney SuperPAC ads that I have seen so far without exception are negative ads attacking Santorum. The Santorum SuperPAC ad is a positive ad promoting Santorum.

I kind of have an interesting perspective on Michigan since I'm originally from Texas. There are lots of people here in Michigan who call themselves conservatives, but who I consider to be moderates. Their definition of "conservative" is difficult than the definition I knew from growing up in Texas. I wouldn't surprise me if Romney pulled it out in Michigan, but it should be close.


Eric,
Has Paul been airing his negative Santorum ad that Rombots at Race42012 are so excited about? http://race42012.com/2012/02/21/ron-pau ... servative/

Rombots give Paul credit for helping dethrone Newt in Iowa and Florida.



I haven't seen any Ron Paul ads. The majority of the ads are from Restore American PAC.

BTW, I'm updating the first post continually as new polls come in, so the average is the average of all 8 polls out of Michigan that we have. Old polls are replaced when a new one comes in from the same polling outfit.



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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:16 pm 
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I think the Ron Paul ads against Santorum are just starting. They pretty much accuse him of supporting Planned Parenthood.

I am so sick of Ron Paul. Some say he is just setting up for Rand in 2016.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:53 pm 
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I've seen the Santorum ad with Romney's mud gun several times, a couple from a SuperPac against Santorum, and no Newt or Paul ads. I did have a phone call from Newt on my voicemail at work when I got in this morning. (How did they get that number?)

I had a pretty amazing realization this morning on the way to work: It is less than 1 week until our primary and this morning is the first (and only) time that I have seen a yard sign out in someone's yard (It was for Santorum).

I found that pretty remarkable and uncommon.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:04 pm 
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bmk2307 wrote:
I've seen the Santorum ad with Romney's mud gun several times, a couple from a SuperPac against Santorum, and no Newt or Paul ads. I did have a phone call from Newt on my voicemail at work when I got in this morning. (How did they get that number?)

I had a pretty amazing realization this morning on the way to work: It is less than 1 week until our primary and this morning is the first (and only) time that I have seen a yard sign out in someone's yard (It was for Santorum).

I found that pretty remarkable and uncommon.


There were way less signs in Iowa this time also. They were mostly Santorum and Paul.

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 Post subject: Re: Michigan polls
PostPosted: Wed Feb 22, 2012 12:31 pm 
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Added this poll to the average.

Marist Poll:
Romney: 37%
Santorum: 35%
Paul: 13%
Gingrich: 8%
Undecided: 7%


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