Gallup tracking for Sat. 2/18:

Santorum 35%
Romney 29%
Gingrich 13%
Paul 11%

So Santorum is up 6%!

Santorum is up 1% from yesterday and Romney is down 1%.

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http://homeschoolershearthuckabee.blogspot.com

Gallup tracking poll for Sunday 2/19

Santorum widens the lead to 8%

Santorum: 36% (+1)
Romney: 28% (-1)
Gingrich: 13%
Paul: 11%

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/articl ... o-from-GOP

Not sure if many people have seen this poll from Iowa. It's a general election poll, so take it with a grain of salt. It shows Romney leading Obama by 2 points and Santorum leading Obama by 4 points.

It's significant because it's Iowa, which has been tending to vote Democratic at the Presidential level. Obama won Iowa by 8 points in 2008. Iowa is one of the very few states in the country that knows Rick Santorum well. The rest of the country doesn't really know who he is that well. It means that the national polls showing Obama leading Santorum are largely based on ignorance. Most people don't know who the guy is, so why would they vote for him? Only the anti-Obama people would answer that they'd vote for Santorum over Obama, which is sadly not a majority of the country but probably around 40% of the country. The poll shows that Santorum can beat Obama despite what the liberals who hate social conservatives scream.

Gallup tracking poll for Monday 2/20

Romney down another 2%

Santorum: 36% (-)
Romney: 26% (-2)
Gingrich: 13% (-)
Paul: 11% (-)

Gallup tracking poll for Tuesday 2/21


Santorum: 36% (-)
Romney: 26% (-)
Gingrich: 14% (+1)
Paul: 11% (-)

I've got a feeling that Santorum's national lead is larger than most people think it is. There have only been 2 recent national polls. Rasmussen polled Feb. 14 and gave Santorum a 12-point lead. The Gallup tracking poll shows Santorum with a 10-point lead nationally.

Arizona and Michigan are both states that lean towards Romney more than most other states. Once the terrain moves to more favorable places for Rick Santorum, then it could get ugly.

Should Santorum manage to win both Michigan and Arizona, then Romney's campaign will probably be over after Super Tuesday. Ohio won't even be close, and Romney could lose Idaho. However, if Romney wins them both then it won't be good. Romney will be back to being the frontrunner again in most people's eyes, and all the focus will turn to Ohio.

Quinnipiac 2/14 - 2/20:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-an ... aseID=1708

Santorum 35
Romney 26
Gingrich 14
Paul 11

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Ken

Ap/GfK 2/16 - 2/20:
http://surveys.ap.org/data/GfK/AP-GfK%2 ... %20GOP.pdf

Santorum 33
Romney 32
Gingrich 15
Paul 15

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Ken

The AP/GFK poll polled adults, not likely voters or even registered voters. Plus, its sample size is 450 compared to 1000 for Rasmussen, 1124 for Quinnipiac, and 1200 for Gallup. Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, and Gallup show 12, 9, and 10 point leads for Santorum, while the AP/GFK polls show only a 1 point lead.

Arizona is starting to look like a lost cause, but Michigan is very close. Other states should be more favorable to Santorum once we get past Arizona and Michigan.

Gallup tracking poll for Wednesday 2/22


Santorum: 35% (-1)
Romney: 27% (+1)
Gingrich: 15% (+1)
Paul: 10% (-1)

Gallup tracking poll for Thursday 2/23


Santorum: 34% (-1)
Romney: 27% (-)
Gingrich: 15% (-)
Paul: 10% (-)

Gallup Poll 3/24
Santorum
31%
-2
Romney
30%
+3
Gingrich
16%
-
Paul
11%
-
Other
3%
-

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So it looks like Romney has won back some of his soft support from Santorum post-debate. Hope Santorum has a really BIG weekend.

I'm also seeing small groups of MI Gingrich supporters encouraging people there to vote for Santorum to block Romney from picking up any more momentum as was done in SC (in reverse). Not sure if the effort will be big enough to succeed.

DELEGATE RACE AS IT STANDS NOW:
Romney- 154, of those 36 are non-binding= 118 solid
Santorum- 69, of those 52 are non-binding= 17 solid
Gingrich- 33, of those 3 are non-binding= 30 solid
Paul- 26, of those 18 are non-binding= 8 solid

POPULAR VOTE TOTALS:
Romney- 1,749,677
Gingrich- 978,229
Santorum- 932,508
Paul- 463,176

All information found at Real Clear Politics

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So, Romney is at 154 and Newt + Santorum are at 102. Newt should be out of the race within a week or two, and if he endorses Santorum, then I'm not sure if Newt's delegates will go to Santorum as well.

Newt should win Georgia, but after that where does he turn? Alabama and Mississippi vote a week later, so he'll probably hang around for them to vote and be out shortly afterwards. I think he's out around March 15th or so.

Santorum is facing a must-win in Tennessee and Ohio. If Romney wins Ohio, then a lot of people will consider him to be inevitable and it'll be just a matter of time. It'll be the same difficultly Huckabee faced post-Super Tuesday in 2008 vs. McCain. We really need to rally behind Santorum on Super Tuesday if we want to stop Romney.

However, should Santorum prevail in Ohio, then this battle will go on for a while. I have a bad feeling about it though. A lot of Republicans are blinded by wanting to beat Obama, and they believe that only Romney can win. It's unfortunate.

Eric,
They had shown on CNN how Mitt could possibly be stopped from getting enough delegates and that this could go to the convention. Dont lose hope.It will be hard but not impossible.
Dick Morris(and the Fox crew), is saying that,that would be bad for the party but what they really mean is,that would be bad for Mitt. They are counting on everyone to fall in line behind Mitt now and from what I am reading, that aint happening..

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There's a Tennessee poll showing Romney closing the gap there. I doubt Romney will win Tennessee, but the mere fact that he could be close tells you that there is a possibility that Republicans are starting to accept what they believe is the inevitable. The Establishment through all of their talking heads on all the various political shows does a good job of selling voters on the fact that they should just get in line after a certain amount of wins, and they usually do. Conservative media jumps on the bandwagon as well.

I think even if Santorum pulls off an Ohio win it will still be next to impossible to keep Romney from the nomination. Even if he is short on delegates he'll be able to cut deals to get over the top. I'd rate Ohio a toss-up, but I've got a suspicion that Romney is going to pull it out because voters are giving up. We'll see what happens, but as I said even an Ohio win doesn't change things drastically for Santorum at this point.

Not sure if people have seen this Gallup tracking poll yet for Tuesday 3/6.

Romney: 34%
Santorum: 24%
Gingrich: 15%
Paul: 12%


Romney is down 4 points from 38%. Santorum is up 2 points from 22%. Gingrich and Paul are unchanged.

That's a significant drop of 4 points for Romney in just one day. No one has dropped that much in one day yet since they've been doing this tracking poll (at least not recently). Nice uptick for Santorum too. It could indicate late movement away from Romney, or it could just be random noise.

I noticed this. I don't know if it is slippage as much as the previous poll may have just been off. However I would not be surprised if Romney has slipped a point or two. I don't know if it will be enough to help Santorum in Ohio, but every little bit counts.