Hucks Army - Faith. Family. Freedom. [Grassroots] JOIN HUCKS ARMY | GET INVOLVED | FUNDRAISING | LINKS | LEADERSHIP | ABOUT
It is currently Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:53 am

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 8 posts ] 
Author Message
PostPosted: Wed Nov 12, 2014 8:32 pm 
Offline
***** General
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 11:13 pm
Posts: 1623
Location: Atlanta, GA
Likes: 177
Liked: 225
Here's the article that's causing all the hubbub:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ ... ml?hpid=z4
Quote:
Saltsman asked Huckabee about whether he was interested in running again. Huckabee shrugged and said he was not sure. Saltsman replied that if he had any inclination to do it, he needed to start mapping out a run as soon as possible in order to keep up with his potential rivals. Saltsman’s parting message: Call me when you’re ready. A couple days later, Huckabee rang Saltsman and said, “Let’s go.”

Since then, Huckabee has checked off a list provided to him by Saltsman and another strategist, Bob Wickers, according to people familiar with his deliberations. First, Huckabee talked it over with his family, who encouraged him. Next, he began calling donors, just to talk, so that those relationships were warmed.

A startling moment for Huckabee came when he reviewed polling of GOP voters in Iowa and South Carolina. The surveys, commissioned by allies, showed him running ahead of other possible GOP candidates by double digits, Huckabee said Tuesday.

“There were polls done that surprised me and got my attention — and led my friends to urge me to think of this again,” he said.

An additional key move came in the formation earlier this year of the non-profit advocacy group to serve as a landing spot for staff and money. The group, formed as a “social welfare organization” under a provision of the U.S. tax code, now employs Saltsman, Wickers, Sarah Huckabee and a communications director, Alice Stewart, who is also a veteran of the 2008 Huckabee campaign. Chad Gallagher, another Huckabee aide, will continue to run HuckPAC, a political action committee separate from the non-profit outfit. All would likely be players in a Huckabee campaign.

...



Post by christopher.wilkerson has received Likes: 2 Huckabeliever, justgrace
Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
PostPosted: Thu Nov 13, 2014 2:20 am 
Offline
MODERATOR
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 3:22 am
Posts: 399
Location: Chicago, IL
Likes: 2
Liked: 8
Exciting!

*rubs hands together* I love it when a plan comes together!

_________________
Whatever doesn't kill Mike Huckabee makes him stronger.
- ABC's The Note



Post by agrandy Liked by: justgrace
Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
PostPosted: Fri Nov 14, 2014 9:27 pm 
Offline
***** General
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2008 10:58 am
Posts: 3019
Likes: 0
Liked: 190
So excited at the prospect of Huckabee in 2016!!!! It's been a long wait...but well worth it!!!



Post by nrobyar Liked by: justgrace
Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
PostPosted: Sat Nov 15, 2014 12:27 am 
Offline
Lieutenant General
User avatar

Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:19 pm
Posts: 1044
Likes: 8
Liked: 208
I've always been really cautious on trying to predict what he might do, but I'd say there's a 90% chance he's running. He's got the inside track in Iowa and SC, and he wasn't polling too bad in New Hampshire. Also he can see just like we can that it is wide open this year. The Establishment has not settled on a candidate yet, and they're likely waiting to see if Jeb runs. If he does then they'll probably back him, but if not they and all their big money support would probably go to Christie. As much as I dislike Jeb as a potential nominee, I think he's easier to beat in the primary than Christie so for that reason I hope he runs. And since it's almost certain that Christie is running if Jeb runs then that means they both will split the establishment and moderate votes.

Also I think Huckabee could knock out most of the conservative candidates in Iowa and then finish off the rest in SC. There's only so much grass root money to go around, and if you lose in both of those you aren't likely to get money. Cruz will be played up as an early favorite, but he will not wear well in Iowa. Cruz looks sharp from a distance, but when Iowa voters get a chance to see him up close and personal it will be different. By contrast Huckabee will appear genuine and sincere.

If Huckabee runs I see it playing out rather predictably. He'll win Iowa and SC, and an establishment candidate will win New Hampshire. But if Jeb and Christie run you could see Christie winning NH and Jeb winning Florida, and maybe for the first time in our memory it's the establishment/moderate voters that are split while the conservatives are rallying behind one candidate. Although probably a more likely scenario is that one other conservative candidate will survive and it will be a 4 man race after Florida. But Huckabee would have the edge in that 4 way scenario as well because I think he could do a better job consolidating conservatives then either Jeb or Christie could do with the moderates.

Just a little pre-primary-election analysis :)



Post by WalterCan Liked by: justgrace
Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
PostPosted: Sat Nov 15, 2014 10:08 am 
Offline
***** General
User avatar

Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 11:13 pm
Posts: 1623
Location: Atlanta, GA
Likes: 177
Liked: 225
WalterCan wrote:
I've always been really cautious on trying to predict what he might do, but I'd say there's a 90% chance he's running. He's got the inside track in Iowa and SC, and he wasn't polling too bad in New Hampshire. Also he can see just like we can that it is wide open this year. The Establishment has not settled on a candidate yet, and they're likely waiting to see if Jeb runs. If he does then they'll probably back him, but if not they and all their big money support would probably go to Christie. As much as I dislike Jeb as a potential nominee, I think he's easier to beat in the primary than Christie so for that reason I hope he runs. And since it's almost certain that Christie is running if Jeb runs then that means they both will split the establishment and moderate votes.

Also I think Huckabee could knock out most of the conservative candidates in Iowa and then finish off the rest in SC. There's only so much grass root money to go around, and if you lose in both of those you aren't likely to get money. Cruz will be played up as an early favorite, but he will not wear well in Iowa. Cruz looks sharp from a distance, but when Iowa voters get a chance to see him up close and personal it will be different. By contrast Huckabee will appear genuine and sincere.

If Huckabee runs I see it playing out rather predictably. He'll win Iowa and SC, and an establishment candidate will win New Hampshire. But if Jeb and Christie run you could see Christie winning NH and Jeb winning Florida, and maybe for the first time in our memory it's the establishment/moderate voters that are split while the conservatives are rallying behind one candidate. Although probably a more likely scenario is that one other conservative candidate will survive and it will be a 4 man race after Florida. But Huckabee would have the edge in that 4 way scenario as well because I think he could do a better job consolidating conservatives then either Jeb or Christie could do with the moderates.

Just a little pre-primary-election analysis :)
I don't see Jeb or Mitt running. That's misdirection by the establishment. The real threat is Rob Portman. Christie is too much of a loose cannon for the establishment. He'll flame out in NH. I think the field is going to be smaller than everyone is predicting.

If Huckabee is in, at least in the back of your mind you have to be thinking, "Am I really going to spend all this time and money in Iowa?"

I think, if Huckabee is in:
  • Perry is out
  • Rubio is out
  • Kasich is out
  • Walker is out
  • Jindal is out post-Straw Poll
  • Santorum should be out, but I don't think he has enough sense 8) (sorry to all the former Santorum supporters :lurk )

On the other hand, I don't know if Huckabee winning Iowa is a forgone conclusion. Carson, Cruz, Santorum, Paul, could really throw a wrench in the gears. This might be another slim margin victory. Although, coming in second didn't hurt Romney much because of his forecast victory in New Hampshire. I wonder if Huckabee will follow Romney's strategy of giving Iowa some space and focusing on the bigger prizes and the wider electorate.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
PostPosted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:56 pm 
Offline
MODERATOR
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jan 16, 2008 3:22 am
Posts: 399
Location: Chicago, IL
Likes: 2
Liked: 8
There has been some discussion this weekend about the un-desirability of Christie as a Presidential candidate. Politico ran this article:

Chris Christie’s temperament spooks Wall Street: Top GOP donors still see the New Jersey governor as a risky investment

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/c ... l?hp=b2_c2

Switching subjects...

Although I think Governor Huckabee will do well in Iowa I definitely don't think he should take it for granted. I think Iowa is a must-win for Governor Huckabee's candidacy. I know there is still South Carolina but there is still so much skepticism of Governor Huckabee in the media due to his being a pastor and his strong faith stances (I don't say that pejoratively...I am a strong faith-based conservative).

_________________
Whatever doesn't kill Mike Huckabee makes him stronger.
- ABC's The Note



Post by agrandy has received Likes: 2 Huckabeliever, justgrace
Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
PostPosted: Thu Nov 20, 2014 6:13 pm 
Offline
Major

Joined: Mon May 16, 2011 2:50 pm
Posts: 290
Location: Plainfield, IN
Likes: 4
Liked: 90
Is the assumption that if Jeb runs, Mitt wont? Mitt still polls very well because of name recognition. He of course crushes Obama head to head now and enough people say "lets give him a shot cause its got to be better than what we have". Thankfully this time around there is no "next in line" like it seems we have been dealing with in recent memory.

I think overlooking Rand Paul is a big mistake. He appeals to groups that men like Huckabee, Jeb, and Christie do not.

I could see him taking 2nd in Iowa and even pushing for 1st in NH. Essentially he would be hoping for some strong finishes in each early state even without winning, just to stay relevant like Ron often did. If there are early caucuses again in NV, CO, etc, Paul should gain some traction.

I think the path is clear for Huckabee though. Win Iowa and SC and find a way to finish 2nd in FL. Once people see he is legit, can raise money, he will start sweeping states.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
PostPosted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 3:23 am 
Offline
Lieutenant General
User avatar

Joined: Sun Dec 30, 2007 7:19 pm
Posts: 1044
Likes: 8
Liked: 208
karrboy84 wrote:
Is the assumption that if Jeb runs, Mitt wont? Mitt still polls very well because of name recognition. He of course crushes Obama head to head now and enough people say "lets give him a shot cause its got to be better than what we have". Thankfully this time around there is no "next in line" like it seems we have been dealing with in recent memory.

I think overlooking Rand Paul is a big mistake. He appeals to groups that men like Huckabee, Jeb, and Christie do not.

I could see him taking 2nd in Iowa and even pushing for 1st in NH. Essentially he would be hoping for some strong finishes in each early state even without winning, just to stay relevant like Ron often did. If there are early caucuses again in NV, CO, etc, Paul should gain some traction.

I think the path is clear for Huckabee though. Win Iowa and SC and find a way to finish 2nd in FL. Once people see he is legit, can raise money, he will start sweeping states.


Yeah I agree that Paul could finish 2nd in Iowa and contend in New Hampshire. But I can't see him doing much after that if Huckabee is in the race.

The value of having Jeb in the race is that if he's in then he would be expected to win Florida and therefore placing 2nd would be seen as almost like a win. So if you won Iowa, showed decent in NH, won SC, and placed 2nd to Jeb in Florida then you're set up very nicely. You've got some conservative states with strong grass roots primary voters leading into Ohio and Michigan where you can end it.


Top
 Profile Send private message  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 8 posts ] 

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron
POWERED_BY